FY-3E微波测温资料同化对台风“灿都”(2021)预报的评价

IF 1.9 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics Pub Date : 2023-10-12 DOI:10.1007/s00703-023-00989-8
Yu Huang, Juan Li, Zhengkun Qin
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引用次数: 0

摘要

风云- 3e是中国发射的第一颗清晨轨道极轨卫星,搭载第三代微波温度测深仪(MWTS-3)。该仪器有17个通道,可提供丰富的不同高度的大气温度观测信息。为探讨MWTS-3资料在同化方面的应用价值,本研究选取2021年台风“灿都”,评价MWTS-3资料同化对影响中国的台风预报的效果。结果表明,将常规资料与MWTS-3资料同步同化,可以有效地修正不同化试验预报的台风路径向西误差,较好地预报了台风“Chanthu”在中国东部沿海及其在上海以东海域停留的路径。因此,也较好地再现了台风仅影响上海和浙江东北部的强降雨特征。与常规资料同化相比,“风云- 3e”MWTS-3资料同化对台风强度预报的改善更为明显,可以更好地预报台风的螺旋雨带。滚动试验结果也证明MWTS-3资料同化对台风路径预报和大于5 mm降水预报能力有稳定的改善作用。
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Evaluation of the FY-3E microwave temperature sounding data assimilation on forecasting Typhoon Chanthu (2021)
Abstract Fengyun-3E is the first early-morning-orbit polar-orbiting satellite launched by China, which carries the third generation of Microwave Temperature Sounder (MWTS-3). This instrument has 17 channels and it can provide rich atmospheric temperature observation information at different altitudes. To explore the application value of the MWTS-3 data in assimilation, we selected Typhoon Chanthu in 2021 in this study to evaluate the effect of the MWTS-3 data assimilation on the forecasts of typhoons affecting China. The results show that the simultaneous assimilation of the conventional data and MWTS-3 data can effectively correct the westward error of the typhoon track forecasted by the experiments without assimilation and well predict the track of Typhoon Chanthu along the east coast of China and its stay on the ocean area east of Shanghai. Therefore, the characteristics of the heavy rainfall caused by the typhoon only affecting Shanghai and northeastern Zhejiang are also well reproduced. Compared with the conventional data assimilation, the assimilation of the Fengyun-3E MWTS-3 data provides a more noticeable improvement in the typhoon intensity forecasts, thus allowing better forecasts of the spiral rain belt of the typhoon. The results of the rolling test also proved that MWTS-3 data assimilation has a stable improvement effect on typhoon track forecasts and the forecast skill of precipitation heavier than 5 mm.
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来源期刊
Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics
Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics 地学-气象与大气科学
CiteScore
4.00
自引率
5.00%
发文量
87
审稿时长
6-12 weeks
期刊介绍: Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics accepts original research papers for publication following the recommendations of a review panel. The emphasis lies with the following topic areas: - atmospheric dynamics and general circulation; - synoptic meteorology; - weather systems in specific regions, such as the tropics, the polar caps, the oceans; - atmospheric energetics; - numerical modeling and forecasting; - physical and chemical processes in the atmosphere, including radiation, optical effects, electricity, and atmospheric turbulence and transport processes; - mathematical and statistical techniques applied to meteorological data sets Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics discusses physical and chemical processes - in both clear and cloudy atmospheres - including radiation, optical and electrical effects, precipitation and cloud microphysics.
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