数字时代的犯罪预测:一个理论框架

Aldona Kipāne, Andrejs Vilks
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究的目的是在特殊文献、实践资料和研究的基础上,描述犯罪预测的犯罪学框架。本文采用了分析、综合、归纳、演绎和描述等研究方法。作者得出结论,充分、全面和高度可靠的犯罪预测的发展是一个费力而复杂的过程。应该以更紧急的方式设计预测措施- -这可能包括提前报告预期的犯罪,以及指出犯罪的总体结构的变化和特定类型犯罪的危险趋势。因此,必须有警告作用,以防止可能出现的不利趋势。
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Crime Forecasting in the Digital Age: A Theoretical Framework
The aim of the study is to describe the criminological framework of crime forecasting based on special literature, prac-tice materials and research. Analytical, synthesis, inductive, deductive and descriptive research methods are used inthe article. The authors conclude that the development of full, comprehensive and highly reliable crime forecasts is alaborious and complex process. Predictive measures should be designed in a more urgent manner – this might en-compass the reporting of anticipated crimes in advance, as well as the indication of changes in the overall structure ofcrime and dangerous trends of a specific type of crime. Consequently, there must be a warning effect in order to preventpossible adverse trends.
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