Factors affecting the conclusion of an arrangement in restructuring proceedings: evidence from Poland

The EU Restructuring Directive (2019/1023) requires Member States to provide a preventive restructuring framework for financially distressed entities that remain viable or are likely to readily restore economic viability. The first step to a successful restructuring is the approval of an arrangement between the debtor and creditors. The main research objective of the article is to identify factors affecting the conclusion of an arrangement in restructuring proceedings. In the process of filtering companies initiating a restructuring procedure, these factors are seen as increasing the probability of concluding an arrangement between debtor and creditors. Moreover, an additional research objective is to construct a turnaround prediction model aimed at assessing the probability of a conclusion of an arrangement in restructuring proceedings. The study covered the companies in Poland for which restructuring proceedings opened between 2016 and 2021 ended with the approval of an arrangement, and a similar number of companies that failed to restructure successfully. Binary logistic regression was applied to achieve the aims of this study. The results show that two financial variables affected companies in terms of their chances to conclude the arrangement: the current ratio and return on assets were among the statistically significant indicators and they are characterized by higher values for debtors reaching the arrangement with their creditors. A direct positive relationship was also identified between the company’s lifespan and the outcome of the proceedings. The probability of the conclusion of the arrangement was also affected by the type of industry. Models assessing the probability of completing restructuring proceedings with an arrangement can be useful for insolvency practitioners and financial analysts during viability assessments.