Modeling the habitat suitability of two exotic freshwater crayfishes in Mesoamerica and the Caribbean: Cherax quadricarinatus (von Martens, 1868) and Procambarus clarkii Girard, 1852 (Decapoda: Astacidea: Parastacidae, Cambaridae)

Abstract Biological invasions are among the main threats to the diversity of freshwater ecosystems, particularly invasions of freshwater crayfishes, which have negatively impacted native populations and ecosystem functions. Various invasions of freshwater crayfishes have been relatively well documented, allowing the use of Ecological Niche Modeling (ENM) techniques to forecast their potential invasive distribution. Modeling the most environmentally suitable areas for exotic species can provide guidelines to allocate resources, thus contributing to the control and management of invasions. We modelled the potential distribution of Cherax quadricarinatus (von Martens, 1868) and Procambarus clarkiiGirard, 1852 in Mesoamerica and the Caribbean using global occurrence data and ten environmental variables to ensemble a model using nine different algorithms. Our models showed that C. quadricarinatus has a high probability of invasion in tropical lowland areas, with the presence of exotic populations of this species already reported. Our results support that P. clarkii has a higher probability of invasion in some of the mountain ranges and plateaus of the study region, where this species has already established non-native populations. These models visualize the high-risk areas of invasion of these two non-native crayfish species in Mesoamerica and the Caribbean. A regional approach for monitoring and control of the invasive populations is encouraged as well as regulations for trade and aquaculture of freshwater crayfishes.