原油海运运费波动的影响因素——以欧洲-非洲航线苏伊士型油轮为例

IF 2 Q3 BUSINESS Maritime Business Review Pub Date : 2022-01-12 DOI:10.1108/mabr-04-2021-0033

Jihong Chen, Renjie Zhao, Wenjing Xiong, Zheng Wan, Lang Xu, Weipan Zhang

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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文旨在找出影响苏伊士型油轮市场运价波动的因素;本研究选取炼油厂产量、原油价格、一年租船费率和船队发展作为主要影响因素进行市场分析。设计/方法/方法本文采用矢量误差修正模型来评价各影响因素对苏伊士型油轮运价的影响程度，以及各影响因素之间的相互作用。使用1999 - 2019年20年的数据对结论和结果进行了检验，证明本文的方法和理论是有效的。研究结果为学者们寻找苏伊士型油轮运价波动规律提供了有效参考。原创性/价值本文为油轮运营商应对油轮运输市场波动风险提供了决策支持工具。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Influencing factors of crude oil maritime shipping freight fluctuations: a case of Suezmax tankers in Europe–Africa routes

Purpose

The paper aims to identify the contributors to freight rate fluctuations in the Suezmax tanker market; this study selected the refinery output, crude oil price, one-year charter rate and fleet development as the main influencing factors for the market analysis.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper used the vector error correction model to evaluate the degree of impact of each influencing factor on Suezmax tanker freight rates, as well as the interplay between these factors.

Findings

The conclusion and results were tested using the 20-year data from 1999 to 2019, and the methodology and theory of this paper were proved to be effective. Results of this study provide effective reference for scholars to find the law of fluctuations in Suezmax tanker freight rates.