{"title":"流沙上的白象:低油价和高地缘政治风险","authors":"Hany Abdel-Latif, Mahmoud El-Gamal","doi":"10.1111/sjpe.12279","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"We investigate the effects of low oil prices and heightened geopolitical risks on economic growth and investment in Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries. We find that negative shocks to oil prices and positive shocks to geopolitical risk have adverse effects on GDP and investment. Moreover, we find that the impact of investment on GDP in MENA countries is muted when oil prices are low and/or geopolitical risk level is high. These findings cast doubts on the prospects of mega-project economic transformation plans as envisioned in 2030 visions for several MENA countries.","PeriodicalId":47171,"journal":{"name":"Scottish Journal of Political Economy","volume":"46 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9000,"publicationDate":"2021-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"White elephants on quicksand: Low oil prices and high geopolitical risk\",\"authors\":\"Hany Abdel-Latif, Mahmoud El-Gamal\",\"doi\":\"10.1111/sjpe.12279\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"We investigate the effects of low oil prices and heightened geopolitical risks on economic growth and investment in Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries. We find that negative shocks to oil prices and positive shocks to geopolitical risk have adverse effects on GDP and investment. Moreover, we find that the impact of investment on GDP in MENA countries is muted when oil prices are low and/or geopolitical risk level is high. These findings cast doubts on the prospects of mega-project economic transformation plans as envisioned in 2030 visions for several MENA countries.\",\"PeriodicalId\":47171,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Scottish Journal of Political Economy\",\"volume\":\"46 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.9000,\"publicationDate\":\"2021-05-04\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Scottish Journal of Political Economy\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1111/sjpe.12279\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Scottish Journal of Political Economy","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1111/sjpe.12279","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
White elephants on quicksand: Low oil prices and high geopolitical risk
We investigate the effects of low oil prices and heightened geopolitical risks on economic growth and investment in Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries. We find that negative shocks to oil prices and positive shocks to geopolitical risk have adverse effects on GDP and investment. Moreover, we find that the impact of investment on GDP in MENA countries is muted when oil prices are low and/or geopolitical risk level is high. These findings cast doubts on the prospects of mega-project economic transformation plans as envisioned in 2030 visions for several MENA countries.
期刊介绍：
The Scottish Journal of Political Economy is a generalist journal with an explicitly international reach in both readership and authorship. It is dedicated to publishing the highest quality research in any field of economics, without prejudice to the methodology or to the analytical techniques used. The editors encourage submissions in all fields of economics in order to provide practical contributions to the literature, and to further the influence of economics in the world of practical affairs.
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