Theodoros Daglis, Ioannis G. Melissaropoulos, Konstantinos N. Konstantakis, Panayotis G. Michaelides
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The impact of COVID-19 on global stock markets: early linear and non-linear evidence for Italy
The scientific community still struggles to understand the magnitude of the worldwide infections and deaths induced by COVID-19, partly ignoring the financial consequences. In this paper, using the autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA)—general autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, we quantify and show the impact of the COVID-19 spread in Italy, utilizing data for the stock market. Using information criteria and forecasting accuracy measures, we show that the COVID-19 confirmed cases contribute with statistically significant information to the modeling of volatility, and also increase the forecasting ability of the volatility of the Italian stock market index, leading to a decrease in the mean stock index.
期刊介绍：
The Evolutionary and Institutional Economics Review (EIER) is issued by the Japan Association for Evolutionary Economics to provide an international forum for new theoretical and empirical approaches to evolutionary and institutional economics. EIER, free from the view of equilibrium economics and methodological individualism, should face the diversity of human behavior and dynamic transformation of institutions. In EIER, “economics” is used in its broadest sense. It covers areas from the classic research in economic history, economic thought, economic theory, and management science to emerging research fields such as economic sociology, bio-economics, evolutionary game theory, agent-based modeling, complex systems study, econo-physics, experimental economics, and so on. EIER follows the belief that a truly interdisciplinary discussion is needed to propel the investigation in the dynamic process of socio-economic change where institutions as emergent outcomes of human actions do matter. Although EIER is an official journal of the Japan Association for Evolutionary Economics, it welcomes non-members'' contributions from all parts of the world. All the contributions are refereed under strict scientific criteria, although EIER does not apply monolithic formalistic measure to them. Evolution goes hand in hand with diversities; this is also the spirit of EIER. Focus areas of the Review (not exhaustive): - Foundations of institutional and evolutionary economics - Criticism of mainstream views in the social sciences - Knowledge and learning in socio-economic life - Development and innovation of technologies - Transformation of industrial organizations and economic systems - Experimental studies in economics - Agent-based modeling of socio-economic systems - Evolution of the governance structure of firms and other organizations - Comparison of dynamically changing institutions of the world - Policy proposals in the transformational process of economic life
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