Predicting Trajectories of Plate-Type Wind-Borne Debris in Turbulent Wind Flow with Uncertainties

Debris poses multifaceted risks and jeopardizes various aspects of the environment, human health, safety, and infrastructure. The debris trajectory in turbulent wind flow is more dispersed due to the inherent randomness of the turbulent winds. This paper investigates the three-dimensional trajectories of plate-type wind-borne debris in turbulent wind fields via the method of numerical simulation. A 3D probabilistic trajectory model of plate-type wind-borne debris is developed. The debris trajectories are numerically calculated by solving the governing equation of debris motion and by introducing turbulent wind flows based on the near-ground wind field measured in the wind tunnel to account for the probability characteristics of the debris trajectory. The dimensionless velocities and displacements of the debris trajectory show good agreement with the experimental data in wind tunnel tests, confirming the rationality of the probabilistic trajectory model. Based on the validated trajectory model, the probability characteristics of the debris impact position, impact velocity, and kinetic energy, debris angular displacement, and angular velocity are analyzed in detail under five different wind attack angles. The proposed probabilistic model of plate-type debris in turbulent wind flow provides an accurate and effective method for predicting debris trajectory in three-dimensional space.