{"title":"伊朗国家疫苗接种计划前后的 COVID-19 死亡率趋势：连接点回归分析","authors":"M. Sepandi, Y. Alimohamadi, Kolsoom Alimohamadi","doi":"10.4103/2221-6189.390388","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"\n \n To investigate the trend of mortality by COVID-19 before and after the national vaccination program using joinpoint regression analysis from 19 February 2020 to 5 September 2022.\n \n \n \n In the present study, a joinpoint regression analysis of monthly collected data on confirmed deaths of COVID-19 in Iran from February 19, 2020 to September 5, 2022 was performed.\n \n \n \n After national vaccination in Iran, the trend of new monthly deaths due to COVID-19 was decreasing. The percentage of monthly changes from the beginning of the pandemic to the 19th month was 6.62% (95% CI: 1.1, 12.4), which had an increasing trend. From the 19th month to the end of the 31st month, the mortality trend was decreasing, and the percentage of monthly changes was −20.05% (95% CI: −8.3, −30.3) (P=0.002). The average percentage of monthly changes was −5% with a 95% CI of (−10.5, 0.9).\n \n \n \n Along with other health measures, such as quarantine, wearing a mask, hand washing, social distancing, etc., national vaccination significantly reduces the mortality rate of COVID-19.\n","PeriodicalId":45984,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Acute Disease","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.4000,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"COVID-19 mortality trends before and after the national vaccination program in Iran: A joinpoint regression analysis\",\"authors\":\"M. Sepandi, Y. Alimohamadi, Kolsoom Alimohamadi\",\"doi\":\"10.4103/2221-6189.390388\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"\\n \\n To investigate the trend of mortality by COVID-19 before and after the national vaccination program using joinpoint regression analysis from 19 February 2020 to 5 September 2022.\\n \\n \\n \\n In the present study, a joinpoint regression analysis of monthly collected data on confirmed deaths of COVID-19 in Iran from February 19, 2020 to September 5, 2022 was performed.\\n \\n \\n \\n After national vaccination in Iran, the trend of new monthly deaths due to COVID-19 was decreasing. The percentage of monthly changes from the beginning of the pandemic to the 19th month was 6.62% (95% CI: 1.1, 12.4), which had an increasing trend. From the 19th month to the end of the 31st month, the mortality trend was decreasing, and the percentage of monthly changes was −20.05% (95% CI: −8.3, −30.3) (P=0.002). The average percentage of monthly changes was −5% with a 95% CI of (−10.5, 0.9).\\n \\n \\n \\n Along with other health measures, such as quarantine, wearing a mask, hand washing, social distancing, etc., national vaccination significantly reduces the mortality rate of COVID-19.\\n\",\"PeriodicalId\":45984,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Acute Disease\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.4000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-12-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Acute Disease\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.4103/2221-6189.390388\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q4\",\"JCRName\":\"CRITICAL CARE MEDICINE\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Acute Disease","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.4103/2221-6189.390388","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"CRITICAL CARE MEDICINE","Score":null,"Total":0}
COVID-19 mortality trends before and after the national vaccination program in Iran: A joinpoint regression analysis
To investigate the trend of mortality by COVID-19 before and after the national vaccination program using joinpoint regression analysis from 19 February 2020 to 5 September 2022.
In the present study, a joinpoint regression analysis of monthly collected data on confirmed deaths of COVID-19 in Iran from February 19, 2020 to September 5, 2022 was performed.
After national vaccination in Iran, the trend of new monthly deaths due to COVID-19 was decreasing. The percentage of monthly changes from the beginning of the pandemic to the 19th month was 6.62% (95% CI: 1.1, 12.4), which had an increasing trend. From the 19th month to the end of the 31st month, the mortality trend was decreasing, and the percentage of monthly changes was −20.05% (95% CI: −8.3, −30.3) (P=0.002). The average percentage of monthly changes was −5% with a 95% CI of (−10.5, 0.9).
Along with other health measures, such as quarantine, wearing a mask, hand washing, social distancing, etc., national vaccination significantly reduces the mortality rate of COVID-19.
期刊介绍：
The articles published mainly deal with pre-hospital and hospital emergency medicine, cardiopulmonary-cerebral resuscitation, critical cardiovascular disease, sepsis, severe infection, multiple organ failure, acute and critical diseases in different medical fields, sudden cardiac arrest, Intensive Care Unit (ICU), critical care medicine, disaster rescue medicine (earthquakes, fires, floods, mine disaster, air crash, et al.), acute trauma, acute toxicology, acute heart disease, and related topics. JAD sets up columns for special subjects in each issue.
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