Labor market dualization or cultural divide?: A comparative analysis of the declining support for center-left parties in Western Europe and Japan

Center-left parties in Western Europe and Japan have experienced a persistent decline in voter turnout. This study examines the factors contributing to this weakening support. Using data from the 2016 European Social Survey across 13 countries and the 2017–2018 Japanese General Social Surveys, we tested three hypotheses: labor market dualization between insiders and outsiders; divergence in policy preferences between social investment and social compensation; and a cultural divide between liberalism and authoritarianism. Our findings provide little support for the labor market dualization and policy preference divergence hypotheses in both Western Europe and Japan. The third hypothesis, concerning a cultural divide in attitudes toward immigration, is supported only in Western Europe. Conversely, Japan is an anomaly because of the absence of a substantial left-liberal constituency. The scarcity of liberal values among Japan's sociocultural professionals suggests that center-left parties have underdeveloped core constituencies.