内部和外部因素对 IDXV30 性能的影响分析

Tumpal Samosir, Pardomuan Sihombing
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在本研究中,作者考察了 BI7DRR、通货膨胀、汇率和 JCI 的内部影响,以及道琼斯工业平均指数、美联储、恒生指数的外部影响,以及在 2019 年 9 月至 2022 年 12 月期间影响指数价值 30(IDXV30)表现的因素贡献。使用的数据类型是月度时间序列数据,采用饱和采样技术,使用 Eviews 12 应用程序,使用 VECM 分析方法进行处理。分析阶段包括静态检验、最优滞后检验、VAR 稳定性检验、格兰杰因果检验、协整检验、脉冲响应函数(IRF)和预测误差方差分解(FEVD)。研究结果证明,汇率和道琼斯工业平均指数共同对 IDXV30 的表现产生负面影响,而恒生指数和通货膨胀则对 IDXV30 的表现产生正面影响。JCI、BI7DRR 和 FED 对 IDXV30 的表现有负面影响。促成因素是 IDXV30 本身,而宏观经济和全球证券交易所没有促成因素。
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Analysis of the influence internal and external factors on the performance of IDXV30
In this research, authors examine the internal influence of BI7DRR, Inflation, Exchange Rate and JCI and external DJIA, the Fed, HSI and the contribution of factors that influence the performance of Index Value 30 (IDXV30) during the period September 2019 – December 2022. Type of data used is monthly time series data using the saturated sampling technique which is processed using the Eviews 12 application program using the VECM analysis method. The analysis phase is through the Stationarity Test, Optimal Lag Test, VAR Stability Test, Granger Causality Test, Cointegration Test, Impulse Response Function (IRF), and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD). The results of the study prove that the Exchange Rate and DJIA together have a negative influence on the performance of the IDXV30 while the HSI and Inflation positively affect the IDXV30's performance. JCI, BI7DRR, FED have a negative influence on the performance of IDXV30. While the contributing factors are the IDXV30 itself while macroeconomics and global stock exchanges do not contribute.
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