COVID-19 反应措施及其对死亡率影响的比较分析

COVID Pub Date : 2024-01-24 DOI:10.3390/covid4020012
T. Konishi
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摘要

(1) 背景:冠状病毒病 2019(COVID-19)大流行对全球人口造成了重大影响,各国为控制其传播采取了不同的应对措施。本研究旨在比较世界卫生组织(WHO)编制的疫情数据,以了解各国采取的措施对死亡率的影响。(2) 方法:确诊病例数的增减用对数表示,使用对数增长率 "K"。死亡率按确诊病例中死亡人数的百分比计算,也用于对数比较。(3) 结果:有效发现和隔离病人的国家的死亡率比没有发现和隔离病人的国家低 10 倍。虽然严格的封锁措施曾经有效,但无法持续实施。取消封锁后,由于医疗失误,大规模疫情爆发。病毒变种发生变异,传染性增强,这阻碍了曾经有效的措施,包括疫苗接种。虽然 mRNA 疫苗的设计得到了更新,但仍无法跟上病毒变异的速度。唯一有效的防御措施是稳步识别和隔离患者。(4) 结论:这些发现对彻底遏制大流行和未来的大流行准备工作具有重要意义。
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A Comparative Analysis of COVID-19 Response Measures and Their Impact on Mortality Rate
(1) Background: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic significantly affected the population worldwide, with varying responses implemented to control its spread. This study aimed to compare the epidemic data compiled by the World Health Organization (WHO) to understand the impact of the measures adopted by each country on the mortality rate. (2) Methods: The increase or decrease in the number of confirmed cases was understood in logarithmic terms, for which logarithmic growth rates “K” were used. The mortality rate was calculated as the percentage of deaths from the confirmed cases, which was also used for logarithmic comparison. (3) Results: Countries that effectively detected and isolated patients had a mortality rate 10 times lower than those who did not. Although strict lockdowns were once effective, they could not be implemented on an ongoing basis. After their cancellation, large outbreaks occurred because of medical breakdowns. The virus variants mutated with increased infectivity, which impeded the measures that were once effective, including vaccinations. Although the designs of mRNA vaccines were renewed, they could not keep up with the virus mutation rate. The only effective defence lies in steadily identifying and isolating patients. (4) Conclusions: these findings have crucial implications for the complete containment of the pandemic and future pandemic preparedness.
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