Kyu-Won Jung, Mee Joo Kang, Eun Hye Park, E Hwa Yun, Hye-Jin Kim, Jeong-Eun Kim, Hyun-Joo Kong, Jeong-Soo Im, Hong Gwan Seo
{"title":"2024 年韩国癌症发病率和死亡率预测。","authors":"Kyu-Won Jung, Mee Joo Kang, Eun Hye Park, E Hwa Yun, Hye-Jin Kim, Jeong-Eun Kim, Hyun-Joo Kong, Jeong-Soo Im, Hong Gwan Seo","doi":"10.4143/crt.2024.252","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Purpose: </strong>This study aimed to report the projected cancer incidence and mortality for the year 2024 to estimate Korea's current cancer burden.</p><p><strong>Materials and methods: </strong>Cancer incidence data from 1999 to 2021 were obtained from the Korea National Cancer Incidence Database, and cancer mortality data from 1993 to 2022 were acquired from Statistics Korea. Cancer incidence and mortality were projected by fitting a linear regression model to observed age-specific cancer rates against their respective years and multiplying the projected age-specific rates by the anticipated age-specific population for 2024. A joinpoint regression model was used to determine the year in which the linear trend changed significantly; we only used the data of the latest trend for prediction.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>In total, 292,221 new cancer cases and 83,770 cancer deaths are expected to occur in Korea in 2024. The most common cancer site is expected to be the thyroid, followed by the colon and rectum, lung, breast, and stomach. These five cancers are expected to represent 55.7% of the overall burden of cancer in Korea. The most common type of cancer leading to death is expected to be lung cancer, followed by liver, colorectal, pancreatic, and stomach cancers.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>The age-standardized incidence rates for female breast and prostate cancers are estimated to continue to increase. These up-to-date estimates of the cancer burden in Korea could be an important resource for planning and evaluating cancer-control programs.</p>","PeriodicalId":49094,"journal":{"name":"Cancer Research and Treatment","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.1000,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11016663/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Prediction of Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Korea, 2024.\",\"authors\":\"Kyu-Won Jung, Mee Joo Kang, Eun Hye Park, E Hwa Yun, Hye-Jin Kim, Jeong-Eun Kim, Hyun-Joo Kong, Jeong-Soo Im, Hong Gwan Seo\",\"doi\":\"10.4143/crt.2024.252\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Purpose: </strong>This study aimed to report the projected cancer incidence and mortality for the year 2024 to estimate Korea's current cancer burden.</p><p><strong>Materials and methods: </strong>Cancer incidence data from 1999 to 2021 were obtained from the Korea National Cancer Incidence Database, and cancer mortality data from 1993 to 2022 were acquired from Statistics Korea. Cancer incidence and mortality were projected by fitting a linear regression model to observed age-specific cancer rates against their respective years and multiplying the projected age-specific rates by the anticipated age-specific population for 2024. A joinpoint regression model was used to determine the year in which the linear trend changed significantly; we only used the data of the latest trend for prediction.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>In total, 292,221 new cancer cases and 83,770 cancer deaths are expected to occur in Korea in 2024. The most common cancer site is expected to be the thyroid, followed by the colon and rectum, lung, breast, and stomach. These five cancers are expected to represent 55.7% of the overall burden of cancer in Korea. The most common type of cancer leading to death is expected to be lung cancer, followed by liver, colorectal, pancreatic, and stomach cancers.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>The age-standardized incidence rates for female breast and prostate cancers are estimated to continue to increase. These up-to-date estimates of the cancer burden in Korea could be an important resource for planning and evaluating cancer-control programs.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":49094,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Cancer Research and Treatment\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":4.1000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-04-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11016663/pdf/\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Cancer Research and Treatment\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.4143/crt.2024.252\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"2024/3/11 0:00:00\",\"PubModel\":\"Epub\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"ONCOLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Cancer Research and Treatment","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.4143/crt.2024.252","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2024/3/11 0:00:00","PubModel":"Epub","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ONCOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Prediction of Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Korea, 2024.
Purpose: This study aimed to report the projected cancer incidence and mortality for the year 2024 to estimate Korea's current cancer burden.
Materials and methods: Cancer incidence data from 1999 to 2021 were obtained from the Korea National Cancer Incidence Database, and cancer mortality data from 1993 to 2022 were acquired from Statistics Korea. Cancer incidence and mortality were projected by fitting a linear regression model to observed age-specific cancer rates against their respective years and multiplying the projected age-specific rates by the anticipated age-specific population for 2024. A joinpoint regression model was used to determine the year in which the linear trend changed significantly; we only used the data of the latest trend for prediction.
Results: In total, 292,221 new cancer cases and 83,770 cancer deaths are expected to occur in Korea in 2024. The most common cancer site is expected to be the thyroid, followed by the colon and rectum, lung, breast, and stomach. These five cancers are expected to represent 55.7% of the overall burden of cancer in Korea. The most common type of cancer leading to death is expected to be lung cancer, followed by liver, colorectal, pancreatic, and stomach cancers.
Conclusion: The age-standardized incidence rates for female breast and prostate cancers are estimated to continue to increase. These up-to-date estimates of the cancer burden in Korea could be an important resource for planning and evaluating cancer-control programs.
期刊介绍:
Cancer Research and Treatment is a peer-reviewed open access publication of the Korean Cancer Association. It is published quarterly, one volume per year. Abbreviated title is Cancer Res Treat. It accepts manuscripts relevant to experimental and clinical cancer research. Subjects include carcinogenesis, tumor biology, molecular oncology, cancer genetics, tumor immunology, epidemiology, predictive markers and cancer prevention, pathology, cancer diagnosis, screening and therapies including chemotherapy, surgery, radiation therapy, immunotherapy, gene therapy, multimodality treatment and palliative care.