气候变化对穆拉埃尼姆县兰邦区 Kusen Clone 橡胶生产的降雨量和雨日的影响

Eva Juniar Andika, Amin Rejo, Puspitahati Puspitahati
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摘要

极端降雨会影响橡胶生产,减少有效出胶日和累积年产量,并对橡胶种植产生广泛影响。本研究旨在了解降雨量和雨日如何影响穆阿拉埃尼姆县兰邦区 Kusen 克隆橡胶的产量。研究对象是面积为 1 公顷的 Kusen 克隆橡胶种植园。分析气候变化对穆拉埃尼姆县兰邦区 Kusen 克隆橡胶生产的影响的初始阶段是确定自变量和因变量。通过 T 检验来确定每个自变量是否对因变量有显著影响。橡胶产量逐年下降,2019 年出胶第一年的平均产量为 205.12 公斤/公顷,2023 年为 118.43 公斤/公顷。系数值(r)显示,降雨量和雨日变量与库森克隆的橡胶生产率变量之间的关联度为 27.2%(充分相关)。相关性测试结果表明,降雨量和雨日与 Kusen 克隆橡胶生产密切相关,相关性分析值为 0.846。回归研究表明,降雨量和降雨日对穆阿拉-埃尼姆行政区兰邦县橡胶克隆库森橡胶产量的影响在统计学上并不显著。
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The Influence of Climate Change on Rainfall and Rainy Days for Rubber Production of Kusen Clone in Rambang District, Muara Enim Regency
Extreme rainfall impacts rubber production, reducing effective tapping days and cumulative annual output and having a wide-ranging effect on rubber crop cultivation. This study aimed to find out how rainfall and rainy days affected the rubber production of the Kusen clone in Muara Enim Regency’s Rambang District. The study was conducted on a rubber plantation of Kusen clone, which has an area of 1 ha. The initial stage in analyzing the impact of climate change on Kusen clone rubber production in Rambang District, Muara Enim Regency, was identifying the independent and dependent variables. The T-test was conducted to see whether each independent variable partially has a significant effect on the dependent variable. Rubber production has fallen year after year, with an average of 205.12 kg/ha in 2019 during the first year of tapping and 118.43 in 2023. The coefficient value (r) shows a 27.2% (sufficient correlation) magnitude association between the rainfall and rainy-day variables and the rubber productivity variable of the Kusen clone. In Correlation test results, rainfall and rainy days are strongly associated with producing Kusen clone rubber, as demonstrated by the correlation analysis value of 0.846. Regression research showed that rainfall and rainy days had a statistically insignificant effect on rubber production on the rubber clone Kusen in Rambang District, Muara Enim Regency.
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