R_0$ 检测不到流行病学模型中的加性多重接触和饱和现象

IF 2.6 4区 数学 Q2 MATHEMATICAL & COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena Pub Date : 2024-04-01 DOI:10.1051/mmnp/2024006
José Geiser Villavicencio-Pulido, I. Barradas, C. Nila-Luévano
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引用次数: 0

摘要

许多传染病都是通过直接接触传播的。通常只需一次直接接触就能达到所需的最低传染量。大多数模型使用质量作用定律类型的术语来描述通过单次接触传播的传染病。然而,要模拟易感个体与多个传染源接触后传播的传染病,需要的不仅仅是质量作用定律术语。我们把那些本身不会产生感染,但如果同时发生就会产生感染的多重接触称为叠加接触。我们有兴趣了解 R0 在感染中的作用,在这种感染中,不仅单次接触会达到最小感染量,而且多次接触也会达到最小感染量。我们提出了不同的数学模型,不仅描述了单次接触的感染情况,也描述了多次接触的叠加感染情况。我们表明,所有模型的 R0 值相同,但对应不同的流行病学机制。两个模型显示了通过多重接触的叠加感染,第三个模型则显示了通过 R0 无法捕捉的某种饱和过程来减少感染。这表明,试图通过控制 R0 来控制流行病可能是不够的,在某些情况下甚至会浪费资源。
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Additive multiple contacts and saturation phenomena in epidemiological models are not detected by $R_0$
Many infections are transmitted by direct contacts. Usually one single direct contact is needed to transmit the required minimum infectious load. Most models describe contagions by single contacts using a term of the type mass action law. However, modelling infections that are transmitted after the susceptible individual had contact with several sources of infection requires more than mass action law terms. We call additive multiple contacts those that do not produce infection by themselves, but can produce infection if they happen simultaneously. We are interested in understanding the role played by R0 missing the mark in infections in which the minimum infectious load is reached not only by single contacts but also by additive multiple contacts. We propose different mathematical models describing not only infections by one single contact but also by additive multiple contacts. We show all models have the same value of R0, but correspond to different epidemiological mechanisms. Two models show contagions by additive multiple contacts and a third one shows reduction of infections by some saturation process which is not captured by R0. This shows that trying to control the epidemics by controlling R0 could be unsufficient or in some cases waste resources.
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来源期刊
Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena
Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena MATHEMATICAL & COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY-MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS
CiteScore
5.20
自引率
0.00%
发文量
46
审稿时长
6-12 weeks
期刊介绍: The Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena (MMNP) is an international research journal, which publishes top-level original and review papers, short communications and proceedings on mathematical modelling in biology, medicine, chemistry, physics, and other areas. The scope of the journal is devoted to mathematical modelling with sufficiently advanced model, and the works studying mainly the existence and stability of stationary points of ODE systems are not considered. The scope of the journal also includes applied mathematics and mathematical analysis in the context of its applications to the real world problems. The journal is essentially functioning on the basis of topical issues representing active areas of research. Each topical issue has its own editorial board. The authors are invited to submit papers to the announced issues or to suggest new issues. Journal publishes research articles and reviews within the whole field of mathematical modelling, and it will continue to provide information on the latest trends and developments in this ever-expanding subject.
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