中国对外直接投资对当地产业结构的影响评估:基于 "一带一路 "沿线国家的案例研究

Chenglong Li
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摘要

随着 2013 年 "一带一路 "倡议(BRI)的初步启动,中国对外直接投资(OFDI)进一步增长,对受援国当地经济活动产生了不可避免的影响。为了权衡中国对外直接投资对当地经济的潜在和长期影响,本文决定通过建立一系列指标来检验中国对外直接投资与当地产业结构变化之间的相关性。依托 2013-2021 年金砖沿线国家的数据,本文得出两个结论:(1)中国对外直接投资影响并提高了金砖沿线国家的产业效率。(2)中国对外直接投资与不同产业比重和当地产业结构合理化之间的相关性尚无明显证据,需要深入研究。
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Evaluation of Chinese OFDI on Local Industrial Structure: A Case Study based on Countries along the “One Belt and One Road”
With the “One Belt and One Road Initiative” (BRI) initially launched in 2013, Chinese outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) has obtained a further growth, which has had an unavoidable effect on the local economic activities of recipient countries. In order to weigh the potential and long-term impact of Chinese OFDI on local economy, this paper determines to test the correlation between Chinese OFDI and changes on local industrial structure via establishing a series of indicator. Relying on the data from countries along BRI from 2013 to 2021, the paper obtain two conclusions: (1) Chinese OFDI affects and improve the industrial efficiency of countries along BRI. (2) There are not obvious evidences on the correlation between Chinese OFDI and the proportion of different industries and the rationalization of local industrial structure, which needs a extensive study.
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