Risk of Asian hornet invasion in Mexico: a proposal for invasive species risk assessment from a spatial perspective

Biological invasions need to be assessed as spatial processes, incorporating information on introduction sites, environmental suitability, dispersal parameters and negative impacts. The above allows us to develop risk maps, which are an important tool to determine the probability and consequences of an invasion in each area. In this study, we developed species niche-based distribution models for Vespa mandarinia and V. velutina, exotic species recently discovered in North America, being V. velutina a recognized invasive alien species that has caused enormous economic impacts in Europe. Species niche-based distribution models were used as a base map to determine the risk of establishment in conjunction with information related to the introduction, economic and biodiversity risk. The models developed in this study show environmental suitability for the establishment of these species in tropical and subtropical locations of North America. In Mexico, more than 50% of the ports are at high risk especially those located in the Gulf of Mexico. The biodiversity impact risk map for V. mandarinia shows that 57 protected areas are in regions with some risk of invasion and the V. velutina analysis shows 49 protected areas at potential risk. By implementing comprehensive surveillance and monitoring programs, integrating early detection and rapid response strategy and leveraging geographic information systems, Mexico can take proactive measures to mitigate the potential impacts of invasive species. These efforts will be crucial in protecting biodiversity, preserving ecosystems and safeguarding the country’s economy from the negative consequences associated with invasive species.