{"title":"预测气候变化对地中海孑遗树种 \"Liquidambar orientalis Mill \"地理分布的影响","authors":"Nihal Kenar","doi":"10.1111/njb.04250","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Climate change is anticipated to pose a significant danger to the habitats and spatial distribution of species in the Mediterranean region throughout the present century. The primary objective of this study was to predict the future geographic range of <jats:italic>Liquidambar orientalis</jats:italic>, commonly known as the oriental sweetgum under different climate change scenarios. This species is a relict riparian Mediterranean plant originating from the southwestern Anatolia region and Rhodos Island in Greece. To gain insights into the potential effects of climate change on the range of <jats:italic>L. orientalis</jats:italic> in the future, I used an ensemble modeling approach of species distribution models based on the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP1‐2.6 and SSP5‐8.5 for the years 2035, 2055 and 2070). The models suggested that the level of precipitation during the wettest month has a crucial role in determining the occurrence of the oriental sweetgum tree. Future projections indicate that the oriental sweetgum will significantly contract its native distribution range due to warming and declining precipitation levels. The population of <jats:italic>L. orientalis</jats:italic> has previously undergone a decrease as a result of anthropogenic activity. Therefore, it is imperative to augment the degree of urgency in conservation endeavors for the oriental sweetgum species against the ramifications of human‐induced actions and the persistent effects of climate change.","PeriodicalId":54716,"journal":{"name":"Nordic Journal of Botany","volume":"62 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-04-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Predicting the effect of climate change on the geographic range of the Mediterranean relict tree Liquidambar orientalis Mill\",\"authors\":\"Nihal Kenar\",\"doi\":\"10.1111/njb.04250\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Climate change is anticipated to pose a significant danger to the habitats and spatial distribution of species in the Mediterranean region throughout the present century. The primary objective of this study was to predict the future geographic range of <jats:italic>Liquidambar orientalis</jats:italic>, commonly known as the oriental sweetgum under different climate change scenarios. This species is a relict riparian Mediterranean plant originating from the southwestern Anatolia region and Rhodos Island in Greece. To gain insights into the potential effects of climate change on the range of <jats:italic>L. orientalis</jats:italic> in the future, I used an ensemble modeling approach of species distribution models based on the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP1‐2.6 and SSP5‐8.5 for the years 2035, 2055 and 2070). The models suggested that the level of precipitation during the wettest month has a crucial role in determining the occurrence of the oriental sweetgum tree. Future projections indicate that the oriental sweetgum will significantly contract its native distribution range due to warming and declining precipitation levels. The population of <jats:italic>L. orientalis</jats:italic> has previously undergone a decrease as a result of anthropogenic activity. Therefore, it is imperative to augment the degree of urgency in conservation endeavors for the oriental sweetgum species against the ramifications of human‐induced actions and the persistent effects of climate change.\",\"PeriodicalId\":54716,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Nordic Journal of Botany\",\"volume\":\"62 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-04-05\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Nordic Journal of Botany\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"99\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1111/njb.04250\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"生物学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"PLANT SCIENCES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Nordic Journal of Botany","FirstCategoryId":"99","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1111/njb.04250","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"生物学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"PLANT SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
Predicting the effect of climate change on the geographic range of the Mediterranean relict tree Liquidambar orientalis Mill
Climate change is anticipated to pose a significant danger to the habitats and spatial distribution of species in the Mediterranean region throughout the present century. The primary objective of this study was to predict the future geographic range of Liquidambar orientalis, commonly known as the oriental sweetgum under different climate change scenarios. This species is a relict riparian Mediterranean plant originating from the southwestern Anatolia region and Rhodos Island in Greece. To gain insights into the potential effects of climate change on the range of L. orientalis in the future, I used an ensemble modeling approach of species distribution models based on the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP1‐2.6 and SSP5‐8.5 for the years 2035, 2055 and 2070). The models suggested that the level of precipitation during the wettest month has a crucial role in determining the occurrence of the oriental sweetgum tree. Future projections indicate that the oriental sweetgum will significantly contract its native distribution range due to warming and declining precipitation levels. The population of L. orientalis has previously undergone a decrease as a result of anthropogenic activity. Therefore, it is imperative to augment the degree of urgency in conservation endeavors for the oriental sweetgum species against the ramifications of human‐induced actions and the persistent effects of climate change.
期刊介绍:
Nordic Journal of Botany publishes original contributions on all aspects of the taxonomy, evolution, conservation, ecology and biogeography of plants (including algae and bryophytes) and fungi.