Protocol for the development and validation of a Rheumatoid Arthritis PredIction moDel using primary care health records (RAPID)

Background Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) is a chronic rheumatological condition which causes inflammation of both the joint lining and extra-articular sites. It affects around 1% of the UK population and, if not properly treated, can lead joint damage, disability, and significant socioeconomic burden. The risk of long-term damage is reduced if treatment is started in an early disease stage with treatment in the first 3 months being associated with significantly improved clinical outcomes. However, treatment is often delayed due to long referral waits and challenges in identifying early RA in primary care. We plan to use large primary care datasets to develop and validate an RA risk prediction model for use in primary care, with the aim to provide an additional mechanism for early diagnosis and referral for treatment.