From Stalin to the Aliyev clan: 70 years of hindered autonomy in Nagorno-Karabakh

Despite Azerbaijan's 2020 military victory over Armenia and the forcible expulsion of all Armenian residents from Nagorno-Karabakh in September 2023, the South Caucasus remains far away from lasting peace and stability. This article addresses the following puzzle: why did secessionism strengthen in Nagorno-Karabakh despite enjoying autonomy for 70 years from 1923 to 1991? Drawing from the securitization theory and Brubaker's institutionalist nationalism approach, the article identifies three variables: the historical context of Soviet nationalities policies, Soviet Azerbaijan securitization policies; and the lingering Armenian fear of a possible new genocide. The consequences of precluded autonomy impaired any prospects for a peaceful settlement as the Second Karabakh War in 2020, a nine month economic blockade of Karabakh commencing in 2022 followed by the ethnic cleansing of all residents in 2023 demonstrate. The methodology followed in this research is a qualitative analysis based on document analysis and interviews with key stake holders. The conclusion summarizes the main research findings.