Ways to Implement a United Triad Regional Monitoring of Forest Ecosystems at the Present Stage of Global Warming

Abstract

The program provisions on the geosystem monitoring of forests in connection with modern climate changes put forward earlier by the author are being developed. The search strategy is presented in the form of an experimental geoecological analysis (using the example of the forest ecosystems of the Volga River basin), with the implementation of the complete monitoring triad “state–forecast–management,” according to the Israel–Gerasimov concept. The theoretical and scientific-methodical foundations of geosystem monitoring are considered, and the methods of basic and predictive empirical-statistical modeling of the functional and structural characteristics of forest communities developed by the author are presented. An integrated landscape-ecological approach to monitoring is presented by the analysis and forecast of climate-genic changes in three groups of invariant indicators of the structural and functional organization of forest biogeosystems: (1) numerical parameters characterizing the tightness of intercomponent links (as an indicator of the territorial integrity of the geo(eco)system); (2) primary bioproductivity as the main indicator of the biological cycle; (3) index of labile (phytocoenotic) stability of geo(eco)systems as integral indicators of their ecological reserve. A working algorithm for geosystem monitoring of forests is described, which describes a successive change in the stages of observation, forecasting, and regulation, with the identification of mitigation and adaptation effects on the carbon balances of forest ecosystems.