Incremental value of tricuspid annular enlargement to progressive tricuspid regurgitation in patients with longstanding persistent atrial fibrillation

Tricuspid annular enlargement in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) can induce tricuspid regurgitation (TR). However, risk factors associated with TR progression in patients with AF have not been defined. This study aimed to clarify an association between tricuspid annular diameter (TAD) and TR progression in patients with longstanding persistent AF. We retrospectively analyzed data from 228 patients who had longstanding persistent AF for > 1 year and mild or less TR on baseline echocardiograms. We defined significant TR as moderate or greater TR, graded according to the jet area and vena contracta. The optimal cut-off value of the TAD index (TADI), based on body surface area for predicting progression to significant TR, was estimated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. The independence and incremental value of the TADI were evaluated using multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression analysis and likelihood ratio tests. Over a median follow-up of 3.7 years, 55 (24.1%) patients developed significant TR. The optimal cut-off value of 21.1 mm/m² for the TADI at baseline and ROC curves predicted TR progression with 70.4% sensitivity and 86% specificity. Furthermore, TADI was an independent predictor of TR progression (hazard ratio, 1.32; 95% confidence interval, 1.17–1.49, P < 0.001) and had a significant incremental value that exceeded that of models constructed using clinical parameters. In conclusion, TADI was significantly associated with TR progression and was an independent predictor of TR progression in longstanding persistent AF.