Permafrost Boundary Change in the Bolshezemelskaya Tundra under Different Climate Change Scenarios in the XXI Century

Abstract

Predictive estimates of changes in the climatological boundary of the permafrost zone as a function of the average annual air temperature in the Bolshezemelskaya tundra under various global economy scenarios until the middle of the XXI century have been obtained. The permafrost climatological boundary shift in the northeasterly direction observed in the period from 1950 to 2010 was determined from the threshold average annual air temperature. According to the adjusted scenario forecasts obtained using the climate model, it will continue in the coming decades under any global economy scenario and is an inevitable consequence of the anthropogenic influence on the climate. The study results are important for assessing the prospects and development of a long-term observation network created to monitor the permafrost state and greenhouse gas fluxes in the Russian Federation.