军事规划中的科幻小说--盟军指挥转型与 2036 年战争构想

Elina Hiltunen, Aki-Mauri Huhtinen
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文重点探讨了将科幻小说用于军事目的以预测未来战争的问题,并介绍了一种创作军事科幻小说的新工具。由于技术是未来战争的重要驱动力,科幻小说在军事领域越来越受欢迎。军队和国防组织已经开始利用科幻小说来预测和准备未来战争。加拿大、美国、英国、法国、澳大利亚和北约都有这样的例子。尽管军事科幻小说呈上升趋势,但对军事科幻叙事及其基础缺乏更深刻的分析。盟军转型司令部(北约战略战争发展司令部)名为《2036 年战争愿景》(2016 年)的报告展示了以军事为基础的科幻小说,用于预测未来战争并为之做好准备。该报告包括 12 个关于未来战争的叙述,从基因操纵的士兵到人工智能生成的战争,不一而足。通过使用 Atlas.ti 程序和人工方法对报告进行定性分析,确定了故事的基本要素。分析结果之一是这些故事彼此有些相似。为了创造出更多样化的军事科幻情景,我们创建了一个新工具:军事科幻情景卡。在实际工作中,当思考未来战争,特别是技术在其中的作用时,可以使用这一工具。它也可以被视为未来研究领域的一个新工具。
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Science fiction in military planning—Case allied command transformation and visions of warfare 2036

This article focuses on using science fiction for military purposes to anticipate the future of warfare and presents a new tool for creating military science fiction. As technology is a significant driver in the future of warfare, science fiction has increased its popularity for military purposes. Armies and defense organizations have begun utilizing science fiction to anticipate and prepare for future wars. Examples can be found in Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Australia, and NATO. Even though military sci-fi is on the rise, there is a lack of a more profound analysis of the sci-fi narratives of the military and its foundations. Allied Command Transformation's, (NATO's Strategic Warfare Development Command) report called Visions of Warfare 2036 (2016) exhibits an example of military-based science fiction employed to anticipate and get prepared for the future of warfare. It includes 12 narratives of the future of warfare varying from gene-manipulated soldiers to AI-generated warfare. By analyzing the report qualitatively using the Atlas.ti program and manual methods, the basic elements of the stories were identified. One of the findings of the analysis was that the stories were somewhat similar to each other. To create more diverse military science fiction scenarios, a new tool: the Military Science Fiction Scenario Card was created. This tool can be used in practical work when thinking about the war of the future and in particular the role of technology in it. It can also be seen as a new tool in the field of futures research.

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Issue Information Issue Information Simplification errors in predictive models Don't push the wrong button. The concept of microperspective in futures research Science fiction in military planning—Case allied command transformation and visions of warfare 2036
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