Predicting the potential distribution of Perina nuda under climate change in China

Perina nuda (Fabricius) (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae) is an important leaf-feeding pest of Ficus species. It significantly affects the growth and reproduction of Ficus species, the economic prospects of growers, and the beauty of urban gardens. This study employed the MaxEnt model to predict and analyze the potential distribution of P. nuda in China, utilizing global distribution data and the correlation between the distribution of P. nuda and environmental variables. The results showed that the dominant environmental variables influencing the distribution of P. nuda included the warmest quarterly precipitation, coldest monthly minimum temperature, annual precipitation, and wettest monthly precipitation. The potential distribution area of P. nuda in China under current climatic conditions is 158 × 10⁴ km², accounting for 16.4% of the total area of the country. According to the SSP5-8.5 scenario in 2050, the potential distribution area of P. nuda is projected to reach 200 × 10⁴ km², an increase of 26.5% compared to the current. P. nuda is widespread in China and has a tendency to spread, threatening the growth of Ficus species. This study is important for monitoring and control of P. nuda in areas where it is present, and where it may be present in the future.