跨国贸易与经济增长:尼日利亚经济增长的影响分析

Vicent Chuks Okafor, Sule Muhammed, Itodo Christian Itodo, Okafoforcha Chika Maureen
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摘要

本研究对跨国贸易和经济增长进行了研究,并分析了其对尼日利亚经济增长的影响。研究涵盖了 1992 年至 2020 年的时间序列数据,模型中包含了国内生产总值、出口、进口、外国直接投资和贸易开放度等变量。结果显示,出口、进口和贸易开放度与经济增长之间存在显著的正相关关系,而外国直接投资与经济增长之间存在显著的负相关关系。这项研究的不足之处在于研究的覆盖年份和模型中积极参与国际贸易的变量与回顾性研究的变量相比存在差距。 研究得出的结论是,与经济增长呈正相关关系的变量会随着变量的增加而促进或导致经济增长,而与经济增长呈负相关关系的外国直接投资只会随着其价值的增加而降低经济增长。研究建议,应优先考虑出口商品的本地生产,减少进口商品,但技术进口除外。
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Cross-Country Trade and Economic Growth: An Impact Analysis of Nigeria’s Economic Growth
This research studied cross country trade and economic growth with the analysis of its impact on Nigeria’s economic growth. It covered time series data from 1992 to 2020 with gross domestic product, exports, imports, foreign direct investment and openness of trade as variables included in the model. The ARDL model was used for data analysis and the outcome showed positive and significant relationships between exports, imports and openness of trade and economic growth while the relationship between foreign direct investment and economic growth was negative but, significant. The gap created in this study lies in the year of coverage and the variables of the model which actively are involved in international trade compared to variables of reviewed studies.  The study concluded that variables with positive relationships with economic growth are the ones that contribute or cause economic growth to increase as they increase while foreign direct investment that has negative relationship with economic growth only reduces economic growth as it increases in value. It recommended that priority should be given to local production of export goods and the reduction of import goods with the exception of technology imports.
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