摩托车骑手和乘客受伤严重程度关系及相关风险因素的二元有序概率模型。

IF 2.3 4区 医学 Q2 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH International Journal of Injury Control and Safety Promotion Pub Date : 2024-09-01 Epub Date: 2024-05-07 DOI:10.1080/17457300.2024.2349554
Mohammed A Yakubu, Eric N Aidoo, Richard T Ampofo, Williams Ackaah
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究同时模拟了摩托车骑手及其乘客的受伤严重程度,并确定了相关风险因素。分析基于加纳阿散蒂地区2017年至2019年的摩托车碰撞事故数据。研究采用了双变量有序概率模型来确定可能的风险因素,前提是在发生碰撞时,乘客的受伤严重程度与骑手的受伤严重程度内生相关。该模型考虑了骑手和副驾驶乘客之间共同的非观测因素,从而提供了更有效的估计。结果显示,两种受伤严重程度之间存在明显的正相关关系,相关系数为 0.63。因此,在发生撞车事故时,增加骑手遭受更严重伤害概率的不可观测因素也会增加其相应乘客的伤害概率。骑手及其乘客的受伤严重程度与一些风险因素(包括乘客的性别、星期、道路宽度和光线条件)的倾向性不同。此外,研究还发现,一天中的时间、天气状况、碰撞类型和碰撞中涉及的车辆数量共同对骑手和乘客的受伤严重程度产生重大影响。
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Bivariate ordered probit modelling of motorcycle riders and pillion passengers' injury severities relationship and associated risk factors.

This study simultaneously modelled the injury severity of motorcycle riders and their pillion passengers and determine the associated risk factors. The analysis is based on motorcycle crashes data in Ashanti region of Ghana spanning from 2017 to 2019. The study implemented bivariate ordered probit model to identify the possible risk factors under the premise that the injury severity of pillion passenger is endogenously related to that of the rider in the event of crash. The model provides more efficient estimates by considered the common unobserved factors shared between rider and pillion passenger. The result shows a significant positive relationship between the two injury severities with a correlation coefficient of 0.63. Thus, the unobservable factors that increase the probability of the rider to sustain more severe injury in the event of crash also increase that of their corresponding pillion passenger. The rider and their pillion passenger injury severities have different propensity to some of the risk factors including passengers' gender, day of week, road width and light condition. In addition, the study found that time of day, weather condition, collision type, and number of vehicles involved in the crash jointly influence the injury severity of both rider and pillion passenger significantly.

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来源期刊
International Journal of Injury Control and Safety Promotion
International Journal of Injury Control and Safety Promotion PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH-
CiteScore
4.40
自引率
13.00%
发文量
48
期刊介绍: International Journal of Injury Control and Safety Promotion (formerly Injury Control and Safety Promotion) publishes articles concerning all phases of injury control, including prevention, acute care and rehabilitation. Specifically, this journal will publish articles that for each type of injury: •describe the problem •analyse the causes and risk factors •discuss the design and evaluation of solutions •describe the implementation of effective programs and policies The journal encompasses all causes of fatal and non-fatal injury, including injuries related to: •transport •school and work •home and leisure activities •sport •violence and assault
期刊最新文献
Accelerated failure time modeling of in-lane street hawkers' lane entry and exit behaviors at signalized intersections. Classifying safe following distance for motorcycles to prevent rear-end collisions. Methods of strategic road safety management: a systematic review. Factors affecting the intention to wear helmets for e-bike riders: the case of Chinese college students. Bivariate ordered probit modelling of motorcycle riders and pillion passengers' injury severities relationship and associated risk factors.
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