新兴经济体的地方汽车市场:探索汽车保有量增长的二分法性质

IF 5.1 3区 工程技术 Q1 TRANSPORTATION European Transport Research Review Pub Date : 2024-05-13 DOI:10.1186/s12544-024-00645-1
Wojciech Kisiała, Robert Kudłak
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引用次数: 0

摘要

新兴和发展中经济体的汽车化密集增长已引起学术界越来越多的关注。然而,许多现有研究经常调查西方国家典型的汽车保有量决定因素,并使用掩盖了进口二手车作用的总体衡量标准。这意味着,关于二手车作为新兴国家和发展中国家汽车保有量增长来源的作用,还存在着重要的研究空白。本文旨在揭示新兴经济体汽车保有量增长的二分法特征,并确定当地一级(新车)和二级(进口二手车)汽车市场的决定因素。利用波兰中央车辆登记处的数据(其中包含 2000 多万辆汽车的登记条目),并运用空间回归模型,我们发现,除了收入、人口密度和住房类型等众所周知的汽车保有量增长决定因素外,可能还有其他新兴经济体特有的因素在推动这一进程。具体而言,我们检验了地理距离对汽车供应来源以及进口和维修二手车的公司和企业家数量的影响。研究结果表明,未来有关发展中经济体和新兴经济体汽车化进程的调查应考虑二手车进口的规模及其对汽车保有量的影响,并寻求这一现象的特定国家决定因素。
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Local car markets in an emerging economy: exploring the dichotomous nature of car ownership growth
The intensive motorization growth observed in emerging and developing economies has attracted increased academic attention. However, many existing studies frequently investigate the car ownership determinants that are typical of Western countries and use aggregate measures that mask the role of imported used cars. This implies that there is an important research gap concerning the role of the second-hand vehicles as a source of car ownership growth in emerging and developing countries. This paper aims to reveal the dichotomous character of car ownership growth in an emerging economy and identify the determinants of local primary (new cars) and secondary (imported used cars) car markets. Using data from the Polish Central Vehicle Register containing entries for more than 20 million cars registered and applying the spatial regression models, we disclose that in addition to well-known determinants of car ownership growth, such as income, population density, and housing types, there may be other factors specific to emerging economies driving this process. Specifically, we test the influence of geographical distance on the source of the car supply and the number of companies and entrepreneurs importing and repairing used cars. The findings suggest that future investigations of motorization processes concerning developing and emerging economies should consider the scale of second-hand car imports and its impact on car ownership and seek country-specific determinants of the phenomenon.
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来源期刊
European Transport Research Review
European Transport Research Review Engineering-Mechanical Engineering
CiteScore
8.60
自引率
4.70%
发文量
49
审稿时长
13 weeks
期刊介绍: European Transport Research Review (ETRR) is a peer-reviewed open access journal publishing original high-quality scholarly research and developments in areas related to transportation science, technologies, policy and practice. Established in 2008 by the European Conference of Transport Research Institutes (ECTRI), the Journal provides researchers and practitioners around the world with an authoritative forum for the dissemination and critical discussion of new ideas and methodologies that originate in, or are of special interest to, the European transport research community. The journal is unique in its field, as it covers all modes of transport and addresses both the engineering and the social science perspective, offering a truly multidisciplinary platform for researchers, practitioners, engineers and policymakers. ETRR is aimed at a readership including researchers, practitioners in the design and operation of transportation systems, and policymakers at the international, national, regional and local levels.
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