基于模糊层次分析法的盾构隧道坍塌事故风险评估

Jun Yang, Linke Qiao, Changjiang Li, Xu Chang, Xing Wu
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摘要

盾构隧道坍塌严重危及城市地铁施工安全,造成恶劣的社会影响。为定量评估盾构隧道坍塌风险,确保盾构隧道正常施工,基于模糊理论和层次分析法建立了盾构隧道坍塌风险评估模型。以北京地铁 8 号线大红门南站至和义站区间隧道坍塌风险评估为例,选取 4 个一级指标和 12 个二级指标定义模糊评价体系。根据层次结构得出评价因子的权重集。根据各指标的平均成员度,用模糊算子计算出风险度,运用多因子模糊关系合成原理得到评价向量。对比分析表明,现场监测结果与模糊评价得出的低风险值非常吻合,证明注浆加固是防止隧道坍塌最有效的方法。工程实践验证了该方法的科学性和合理性,充分发挥了从定性到定量的优势,具有较高的准确性和普遍适用性。
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Risk assessment of shield tunnel collapse accident based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process

The collapse of shield tunnel seriously endangers the safety of urban subway construction and causes adverse social impact. In order to quantitatively evaluate the collapse risk of shield tunnel and ensure the normal construction of shield tunnel, the risk assessment model of shield tunnel collapse is established based on fuzzy theory and analytic hierarchy process. Taking the collapse risk assessment of the tunnel from Dahongmen South Station to Heyi Station of Beijing Metro Line 8 as an example, 4 first level indicators and 12 second level indicators are selected to define a fuzzy evaluation system. The weight set of evaluation factors is derived according to the hierarchy. According to the average membership degree of each index, the risk degree is calculated by fuzzy operator and the evaluation vector is obtained by applying the principle of multifactor fuzzy relation synthesis. The comparative analysis shows that the on-site monitoring results are very consistent with the lowrisk value obtained from the fuzzy evaluation, which proves that grouting reinforcement is the most effective method to prevent tunnel collapse. The engineering practice has verified the scientificity and rationality of this method, which gives full play to the advantages from qualitative to quantitative, and has high accuracy and universal applicability.

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