基于各种气象灾害的港口风险评估研究

Tianni Wang, Zongjie Ding, M. C. Poo, Yui-yip Lau
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摘要

在经济全球化的框架内,港口是国际贸易的关键节点,发挥着至关重要的作用。然而,由于基础设施与自然环境密切相关,港口极易受到气象灾害的影响。因此,全面评估气象灾害对港口造成的风险,建立相应的预警机制,采取合理的应对和恢复策略,是确保港口安全运行、维护国际贸易稳定的首要条件。本研究综合分析了历史数据,确定了预先建立的损失分层体系,完善了 "预期损失 "的理论构建。此外,本研究还创新性地将预防因素与风险指标相结合。在计算过程中使用了一种定量算法来考虑预防因素,从而得出与每个风险指标相关的权重。这项研究旨在通过这种方法减少权重分配过程中固有的主观性,从而提高灾害风险评估的科学性和可靠性。此外,它还强调了适应性城市规划在增强港口等重要经济节点的抗灾能力方面的关键作用,从而有助于实现更广泛的城市可持续发展目标。
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Research on Port Risk Assessment Based on Various Meteorological Disasters
Within the framework of economic globalisation, ports serve as critical junctures in international trade and play a vital role. However, as infrastructure is closely linked to the natural environment, ports are highly susceptible to the impacts of meteorological disasters. Therefore, a comprehensive assessment of the risks posed by meteorological hazards to ports, establishing corresponding early warning mechanisms, and adopting reasonable response and recovery strategies, is paramount in ensuring the safe operation of ports and maintaining the stability of international trade. This study has comprehensively analysed historical data and identified the pre-established loss stratification system, improving the theoretical construct of “expected loss”. Additionally, this research has innovatively integrated the idea of preventative factors aligned with risk indicators. A quantitative algorithm was used to factor in the preventative factors within the computational procedure, deriving the weights pertinent to each risk indicator. This research aimed to reduce the subjectivity inherent in the weighting assignment process through such an approach, thereby enhancing disaster risk assessment’s scientific rigour and reliability. Moreover, it underscores the critical role of adaptive urban planning in enhancing the resilience of crucial economic nodes like ports, thereby contributing to the broader objectives of sustainable urban development.
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