Tropical cyclone low-level wind speed, shear, and veer: sensitivity to the boundary layer parametrization in the Weather Research and Forecasting model

Abstract. Mesoscale modeling can be used to analyze key parameters for wind turbine load assessment in a large variety of tropical cyclones. However, the modeled wind structure of tropical cyclones is known to be sensitive to the boundary layer scheme. We analyze modeled wind speed, shear, and wind veer across a wind turbine rotor plane in the eyewall and outer cyclone. We further assess the sensitivity of wind speed, shear, and veer to the boundary layer parametrization. Three model realizations of Typhoon Megi are analyzed over the open ocean using three frequently used boundary layer schemes in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. All three typhoon simulations reasonably reproduce the cyclone track and structure. The boundary layer parametrization causes up to 15 % differences in median wind speed at hub height between the simulations. The simulated wind speed variability also depends on the boundary layer scheme. The modeled median wind shear is smaller than or equal to 0.11 used in the current IEC (International Electrotechnical Commission) standard regardless of the boundary layer scheme for the eyewall and outer cyclone region. However, up to 43.6 % of the simulated wind profiles in the eyewall region exceed 0.11. While the surface inflow angle is sensitive to the boundary layer scheme, wind veer in the lowest 400 m of the atmospheric boundary layer is less affected by the boundary layer scheme. Simulated median wind veer reaches values up to 1.7×10-2° m−1 (1.2×10-2° m−1) in the eyewall region (outer cyclone region) and is relatively small compared to moderate-wind-speed regimes. On average, simulated wind speed shear and wind veer are highest in the eyewall region. Yet strong spatial organization of wind shear and veer along the rainbands may increase wind turbine loads due to rapid changes in the wind profile at the turbine location.