2022 年夏季热浪是造成欧洲死亡人数过多的主要原因吗?

IF 3 Q2 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Climate Pub Date : 2024-05-09 DOI:10.3390/cli12050069
J. Aarstad
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摘要

2022 年夏季,欧洲出现了创纪录的热浪,一项研究认为,在 5 月 30 日至 9 月 4 日期间,热浪造成约 62 000 人死亡。同期超额死亡总人数约为 13.7 万人,这表明热浪是造成死亡的主要原因。本文并不完全排除这种解释,但认为它不可能是一个强有力的原因。首先,如果热浪是造成大量死亡的主要原因,那么人们会认为老年人和贫困人口死亡的可能性相对较大。然而,在英国 2022 年的夏季热浪中,据称造成了约 2900 人死亡,但年龄最大的人群的超额死亡率并不比中年人群高,而且超额死亡率实际上随着贫困状况而下降。此外,冰岛夏季的超额死亡率是欧洲最高的,这不能归咎于热浪。2022 年 6 月、7 月和 8 月期间,南半球同类国家的超额死亡率也很高,这也不能归因于热浪,因为当时正值冬季。此外,欧洲在 2022-2023 年冬季的超额死亡率高于 2022 年夏季,直观上不能归因于热浪,但也不能归因于寒冷天气,因为那个冬季异常温和。最后,本文讨论了一个令人费解的问题,即相对于人口而言,热浪造成的死亡人数中女性可能比男性多出约 56%。
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Were the 2022 Summer Heatwaves a Strong Cause of Europe’s Excess Deaths?
During the 2022 summer, Europe experienced heatwaves with record temperatures, and a study has argued that they caused about 62,000 deaths between 30 May and 4 September. The total number of excess deaths during the same period was about 137,000, indicating that the heatwaves were a substantial contributor. Not ruling out that explanation entirely, this paper argues that it was unlikely a strong cause. First, if the heatwaves were a strong cause of numerous deaths, one would assume that the older and deprived were relatively likely to die. However, during the 2022 summer heatwaves in England, which were claimed to have caused about 2900 deaths, the oldest age cohort did not have a higher excess death rate than the middle age cohort, and the excess death rate actually decreased with deprivation status. Moreover, Iceland had among Europe’s highest excess death rates during the summer, which cannot be attributed to heatwaves. During June, July, and August 2022, comparable southern hemisphere countries furthermore had high excess death rates, which cannot be attributed to heatwaves either, as it was during their winter. Also, Europe’s excess death rate was higher during the 2022–2023 winter than during the 2022 summer, and intuitively not attributed to heatwaves, but neither to cold weather, as that winter was abnormally mild. Finally, the paper discusses the puzzling issue that about 56% more women than men, relative to the population, presumably died from the heatwaves.
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来源期刊
Climate
Climate Earth and Planetary Sciences-Atmospheric Science
CiteScore
5.50
自引率
5.40%
发文量
172
审稿时长
11 weeks
期刊介绍: Climate is an independent, international and multi-disciplinary open access journal focusing on climate processes of the earth, covering all scales and involving modelling and observation methods. The scope of Climate includes: Global climate Regional climate Urban climate Multiscale climate Polar climate Tropical climate Climate downscaling Climate process and sensitivity studies Climate dynamics Climate variability (Interseasonal, interannual to decadal) Feedbacks between local, regional, and global climate change Anthropogenic climate change Climate and monsoon Cloud and precipitation predictions Past, present, and projected climate change Hydroclimate.
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