{"title":"土耳其麻疹数学模型","authors":"Osman Isik Rasit, N. Tuncer, M. Martcheva","doi":"10.1142/s0218339024500323","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we use a previously developed measles model to forecast measles in Turkey for the period 1970–2021. We study the structural identifiability of the model both by hand and using software. By hand, we assume the prevalence and the total population size are given. Using software, we assume the incidence and the total population size are given. The model is structurally identifiable if one of the three parameters is fixed. We notice that Turkey has a significant change in time of the immigration rate and vaccination proportions, so we assume these two quantities are time-dependent. We fit the nonautonomous model to the measles incidences in Turkey for 1970–2021. We perform practical identifiability of the fitted model, and find that all parameters but one are practically identifiable. When fixing the unidentifiable parameter to a value derived from additional data, we obtain that all parameters are practically identifiable.","PeriodicalId":54872,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biological Systems","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.3000,"publicationDate":"2024-05-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF MEASLES IN TURKEY\",\"authors\":\"Osman Isik Rasit, N. Tuncer, M. Martcheva\",\"doi\":\"10.1142/s0218339024500323\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"In this paper, we use a previously developed measles model to forecast measles in Turkey for the period 1970–2021. We study the structural identifiability of the model both by hand and using software. By hand, we assume the prevalence and the total population size are given. Using software, we assume the incidence and the total population size are given. The model is structurally identifiable if one of the three parameters is fixed. We notice that Turkey has a significant change in time of the immigration rate and vaccination proportions, so we assume these two quantities are time-dependent. We fit the nonautonomous model to the measles incidences in Turkey for 1970–2021. We perform practical identifiability of the fitted model, and find that all parameters but one are practically identifiable. When fixing the unidentifiable parameter to a value derived from additional data, we obtain that all parameters are practically identifiable.\",\"PeriodicalId\":54872,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Biological Systems\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.3000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-05-09\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Biological Systems\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"99\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1142/s0218339024500323\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"数学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"BIOLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Biological Systems","FirstCategoryId":"99","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s0218339024500323","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"BIOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
In this paper, we use a previously developed measles model to forecast measles in Turkey for the period 1970–2021. We study the structural identifiability of the model both by hand and using software. By hand, we assume the prevalence and the total population size are given. Using software, we assume the incidence and the total population size are given. The model is structurally identifiable if one of the three parameters is fixed. We notice that Turkey has a significant change in time of the immigration rate and vaccination proportions, so we assume these two quantities are time-dependent. We fit the nonautonomous model to the measles incidences in Turkey for 1970–2021. We perform practical identifiability of the fitted model, and find that all parameters but one are practically identifiable. When fixing the unidentifiable parameter to a value derived from additional data, we obtain that all parameters are practically identifiable.
期刊介绍：
The Journal of Biological Systems is published quarterly. The goal of the Journal is to promote interdisciplinary approaches in Biology and in Medicine, and the study of biological situations with a variety of tools, including mathematical and general systems methods. The Journal solicits original research papers and survey articles in areas that include (but are not limited to):
Complex systems studies; isomorphies; nonlinear dynamics; entropy; mathematical tools and systems theories with applications in Biology and Medicine.
Interdisciplinary approaches in Biology and Medicine; transfer of methods from one discipline to another; integration of biological levels, from atomic to molecular, macromolecular, cellular, and organic levels; animal biology; plant biology.
Environmental studies; relationships between individuals, populations, communities and ecosystems; bioeconomics, management of renewable resources; hierarchy theory; integration of spatial and time scales.
Evolutionary biology; co-evolutions; genetics and evolution; branching processes and phyllotaxis.
Medical systems; physiology; cardiac modeling; computer models in Medicine; cancer research; epidemiology.
Numerical simulations and computations; numerical study and analysis of biological data.
Epistemology; history of science.
The journal will also publish book reviews.
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