[COVID-19 对 2020 年智利出生时预期寿命的直接和间接影响]。

IF 1.9 4区 医学 Q3 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Cadernos de saude publica Pub Date : 2024-05-20 eCollection Date: 2024-01-01 DOI:10.1590/0102-311XES182823
Gonzalo Ghío-Suárez, Andrés Alegría-Silva, Jenny García-Arias
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文根据 2023 年 3 月公布的死亡率统计数据,说明 COVID-19 对 2020 年智利预期寿命的直接和间接影响。为此,在没有 COVID-19 的情况下,对 2020 年的死亡率进行了反事实估计;根据 1997 年至 2019 年按死因分列的死亡率模式,绘制了死亡率图表,以计算 2015 年至 2020 年的预期寿命和 2020 年的估计寿命,然后按年龄组和死因分列 2020 年预期寿命与观察寿命之间的差异。2020 年的预期寿命中断了 2015 年至 2019 年的上升趋势,与 2019 年相比,男性下降了 1.32 岁,女性下降了 0.75 岁。与预计的 2020 年相比,男性预期寿命减少了 1.51 岁,女性减少了 0.92 岁,但 COVID-19 对男性 60-84 岁年龄组和女性 60-89 岁年龄组预期寿命减少的直接影响更大(男性为 1.89 岁,女性为 1.5 岁)。COVID-19 对预期寿命的直接负面影响因对两类死亡原因(呼吸系统疾病和传染病及寄生虫病)的显著正面间接影响而得到部分缓解。这项研究表明,有必要区分 COVID-19 的直接和间接影响,因为当 COVID-19 的强度降低和流动限制暂停时,会对公共卫生产生影响。
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[Direct and indirect impact of COVID-19 on life expectancy at birth in Chile in 2020].

This article shows the direct and indirect impacts of COVID-19 on life expectancy in Chile in 2020, based on mortality statistics published in March 2023. To this end, a counterfactual mortality was estimated for 2020 without COVID-19; based on the pattern of mortality by cause of death from 1997 to 2019, mortality charts were created to calculate life expectancy from 2015 to 2020 and an estimation for 2020, and the difference between expected and observed life expectancy in 2020 was then separated by age group and cause of death. Life expectancy in 2020 interrupted the upward trend from 2015 to 2019, showing a decline of 1.32 years in men and 0.75 years in women compared to 2019. Compared to the estimated 2020, life expectancy was 1.51 years lower in men and 0.92 years lower in women, but the direct impact of COVID-19 on the decrease in life expectancy was greater (1.89 for men and 1.5 for women) in the 60-84 age group in men and the 60-89 age group in women. The direct negative impact of COVID-19 on life expectancy was partially mitigated by significant positive indirect impacts on two groups of causes of death: diseases of the respiratory system and infectious and parasitic diseases. This study shows the need to differentiate direct and indirect impacts of COVID-19, due to the implications for public health when the intensity of COVID-19 decreases and mobility restrictions are suspended.

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来源期刊
Cadernos de saude publica
Cadernos de saude publica 医学-公共卫生、环境卫生与职业卫生
CiteScore
5.30
自引率
7.10%
发文量
356
审稿时长
3-6 weeks
期刊介绍: Cadernos de Saúde Pública/Reports in Public Health (CSP) is a monthly journal published by the Sergio Arouca National School of Public Health, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (ENSP/FIOCRUZ). The journal is devoted to the publication of scientific articles focusing on the production of knowledge in Public Health. CSP also aims to foster critical reflection and debate on current themes related to public policies and factors that impact populations'' living conditions and health care. All articles submitted to CSP are judiciously evaluated by the Editorial Board, composed of the Editors-in-Chief and Associate Editors, respecting the diversity of approaches, objects, and methods of the different disciplines characterizing the field of Public Health. Originality, relevance, and methodological rigor are the principal characteristics considered in the editorial evaluation. The article evaluation system practiced by CSP consists of two stages.
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