化肥市场危机及其对撒哈拉以南非洲国家粮食安全的影响

Vsevolod D. Spirenkov
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摘要

化肥市场的稳定在确保粮食安全方面发挥着至关重要的作用,尤其是在撒哈拉以南非洲等严重依赖农业的地区。然而,最近的化肥市场危机凸显了非洲国家对外部冲击的脆弱性,加剧了与粮食生产和获取相关的现有挑战。本文探讨了对 2022-2023 年化肥市场危机在加剧撒哈拉以南非洲国家粮食安全状况方面所起作用的评估。研究结果表明,2022 年撒哈拉以南非洲地区营养不良人数将达到 2.62 亿人(占总人口的 23%),营养不良人数的增加在很大程度上归因于国内农业生产无法提高。反过来,化肥市场发生的事件导致可用供应减少和全球市场价格上涨,阻碍了非洲农民增加化肥施用量以提高作物产量。文章还分析了阻碍非洲国家适应化肥市场危机的因素,并与发达国家进行了比较。解决撒哈拉以南非洲的化肥市场危机需要采取多方面的方法,包括提高国内化肥生产能力、加强农业推广服务和推广可持续耕作方法。此外,还需要加强政府、国际组织和私营部门之间的合作,制定长期解决方案,以加强粮食安全和应对未来挑战的能力。
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Fertilizer Market Crisis and Its Impact on Food Security in Sub-Saharan African Countries
The stability of the fertilizer market plays a critical role in ensuring food security, particularly in regions heavily reliant on agriculture such as Sub-Saharan Africa. However, the recent fertilizer market crisis has underscored the vulnerability of African countries to external shocks, exacerbating existing challenges related to food production and access. The article examines the assessment of the role of the fertilizer market crisis of 2022–2023 in exacerbating the food security situation in Sub-Saharan African countries. The findings suggest that the increase in the number of people experiencing malnutrition, reaching 262 million individuals (23 % of the population) in 2022 in Sub-Saharan Africa, is largely attributed to the inability to enhance domestic agricultural production. In turn, events in the fertilizer market, leading to a reduction in available supply and price hikes in the global market, hindered African farmers from increasing fertilizer application to boost crop yields. The article also conducts an analysis of factors that prevented African countries from adapting to the fertilizer market crisis, drawing comparisons with developed nations. Addressing the fertilizer market crisis in Sub-Saharan Africa requires a multi-faceted approach that involves improving domestic fertilizer production capacity, enhancing agricultural extension services, and promoting sustainable farming practices. Furthermore, there is a need for increased collaboration between governments, international organizations, and the private sector to develop long-term solutions that strengthen food security and resilience in the face of future challenges.
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