移民对俄罗斯经济和生产力增长的影响

Q1 Arts and Humanities Journal of Eurasian Studies Pub Date : 2024-05-17 DOI:10.1177/18793665241255385
Han-Sol Lee, A. Kurbatskii
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究基于 2015-2021 年期间俄罗斯 80 个州的面板数据,努力探讨移民潮对国家经济和生产率增长的影响。我们的研究旨在引导移民政策,促进俄罗斯收入和生产率的可持续增长。通过使用各州固定效应进行基线回归分析,以及使用各州随机效应和两步系统 GMM 进行附加分析,我们发现移民增长率对人均收入和全要素生产率有正向影响,并且其影响因俄罗斯地区而异。这表明,移民外流对俄罗斯地区经济产生了负面影响,抑制了地区经济增长,而移民流入的积极影响在西伯利亚和远东联邦区人口较少的州表现得最为明显。这也证明了移民外流的负面影响,概括起来就是劳动力外流和税收流失。考虑到俄罗斯技术工人外流到其他国家以及国内移民流向俄罗斯西部的不平衡,俄罗斯政府应在国际和国内范围内实施移民政策以吸引移民。为减少向其他国家的移民外流,应创造高质量的工作岗位(通过增加研发),并提供其他奖励和补贴,以鼓励移民返回俄罗斯。对于俄罗斯小地区的移民流入,应促进国内外投资,以创造就业机会和建立基础设施,这也有助于减缓这些地区的移民速度。
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The effect of migration on economic and productivity growth in Russia
This research endeavors to delve into the impact of migration flows on the nation’s economic and productivity growth based on panel data from 80 Russian states for the period of 2015–2021. Our research aims to induce migration policies for the sustainable income and productivity growth of Russia. From the baseline regression analysis with state fixed effects and additional analysis with state random effects and the two-step system GMM, we found a positive impact of migration growth rate on per capita and TFP and the heterogeneity of its effects depending on the Russian regions. It indicates that migration outflows negatively influence the regional economies of Russia and suppress regional economic growth and the positive effects of migration inflows are the strongest shown in less populated states in the Siberian and Far Eastern Federal Districts. This is evidence of the negative effects of migration outflows, which are summarized by the exodus of labor and the loss of tax revenues. The Russian government should implement migration policies both in international and domestic contexts to attract migrants, considering that Russia suffers from outflows of skilled workers to other countries and unbalanced domestic migration flows to west Russia. To reduce migration outflows of workers to other countries, quality jobs should be created (through an increase in R&D), and other incentives and subsidies can be provided to encourage emigrants to return to Russia. For the migration inflows of small regions in Russia, domestic and foreign investment should be promoted to create jobs and establish infrastructure, which can also help slow down immigration from these regions.
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来源期刊
Journal of Eurasian Studies
Journal of Eurasian Studies Arts and Humanities-History
CiteScore
2.60
自引率
0.00%
发文量
15
审稿时长
8 weeks
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