Benjamin R. Goldstein, Alex J. Jensen, Roland Kays, Michael V. Cove, William J. McShea, Brigit Rooney, Elizabeth M. Kierepka, Krishna Pacifici
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引用次数: 0
摘要
场地占用模型（SOM）是研究野生动物空间生态学的常用工具。当使用被动监测野外方法（包括相机陷阱或自主记录器）收集观测数据时，对动物的检测可能会存在时间自相关性，从而导致估算结果存在偏差和不确定性量化错误。目前，我们还缺乏明确的指导来理解和减轻使用相机陷阱数据估计占用模型时的时间自相关性后果。我们通过模拟来探讨自相关性何时以及如何导致对占用率的估计出现偏差或过于自信。我们探讨了存在自相关性时采样设计和生物条件对模型性能的影响，研究了几种识别和减轻偏差的技术的实用性，并比较了 SOM 与明确估计自相关性的模型的性能。我们还利用 22 种北美哺乳动物的探测结果进行了案例研究。我们发现，之前提出的用于识别集群检测的连接计数拟合优度测试在一系列条件下都能有效检测自相关性。我们发现，当调查持续时间较短且探测率较低时，估计的占用截距会出现强烈偏差。我们提供了一个参考表，用于评估各种条件下的预期偏差程度。我们进一步发现，用更大的窗口对数据进行离散化处理可降低自相关性带来的偏差程度。在我们的案例研究中，我们发现大多数物种的探测结果都是自相关的，并展示了更大的探测窗口可以如何减轻由此产生的偏差。我们的研究结果表明，自相关在相机捕获器数据中很可能很普遍，以前许多基于相机捕获器数据的占据率研究可能系统性地低估了占据率概率。展望未来，我们建议生态学家在利用相机捕获数据估计占用率时，使用连接计数拟合优度检验来确定其数据中是否存在自相关性。如果存在自相关性，SOM 应使用较大的检测窗来减轻偏差，并更准确地量化占用率模型参数的不确定性。生态学家不应使用检测期之间的间隙，因为间隙不能有效缓解数据的时间结构，还会丢弃有用的数据。
期刊介绍：
A British Ecological Society journal, Methods in Ecology and Evolution (MEE) promotes the development of new methods in ecology and evolution, and facilitates their dissemination and uptake by the research community. MEE brings together papers from previously disparate sub-disciplines to provide a single forum for tracking methodological developments in all areas.
MEE publishes methodological papers in any area of ecology and evolution, including:
-Phylogenetic analysis
-Statistical methods
-Conservation & management
-Theoretical methods
-Practical methods, including lab and field
-This list is not exhaustive, and we welcome enquiries about possible submissions. Methods are defined in the widest terms and may be analytical, practical or conceptual.
A primary aim of the journal is to maximise the uptake of techniques by the community. We recognise that a major stumbling block in the uptake and application of new methods is the accessibility of methods. For example, users may need computer code, example applications or demonstrations of methods.
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