调整后的净节余需要进一步调整:重新评估可持续性衡量中的人力和资源因素

IF 5.5 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS Journal of Environmental Economics and Management Pub Date : 2024-04-30 DOI:10.1016/j.jeem.2024.102984
John C.V. Pezzey
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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们建立了一个封闭经济中生产和消费最优增长的理论模型,其中包括人力资本、知识资本和不断增长的自然资源的投入,并对 1995-2014 年间全球经济的近似指数增长进行了两次校准。由此我们可以看出,世界银行的 "调整后净储蓄"(ANS)衡量一个经济体的可持续性,与世界银行首选的衡量标准--财富变化相比,具有一些实践和理论上的优势,但理想情况下需要进一步调整。我们的模型包括对人力和知识资本投资、净资源增长和生产率增长所带来的收益的遗漏或低估估计,以及人口增长对资本稀释的成本。这些因素加在一起,使估计的全球 ANS 比世界银行的估计值高出约 10 个百分点,相当于其增长率乘以财富总量,但我们的调整对某些国家来说可能是负值。通过将约 18% 的产出从消费重新归类为人力和知识资本投资,我们的第二次校准只需要每年 0.3% 的外生生产力增长就能解释 1995-2014 年间观察到的全球消费增长。虽然我们的模型忽略了环境成本,从而忽略了长期可持续性问题,但我们的调整建议进行理想但困难的改革,以改善作为比较可持续性指标的世界银行国民核算体系。
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Adjusted net savings needs further adjusting: Reassessing human and resource factors in sustainability measurement

We build a theoretical model of optimal, closed-economy growth of production and consumption, including inputs of human and knowledge capital and growing natural resources, and give two calibrations of it to the global economy's approximately exponential growth during 1995–2014. We thereby show that the World Bank's Adjusted Net Savings (ANS) measure of an economy's sustainability, which has some practical and theoretical advantages over change in wealth, the Bank's preferred measure, ideally needs further adjusting. Our model includes omitted or undervalued estimates of the benefits of human and knowledge capital investment, net resource growth, and productivity growth, and the cost of capitals dilution by population growth. Together these raise estimated, global ANS about 10 percentage points above the Bank's estimate, to equal their growth rate times total wealth, but our adjustments could be negative overall for some countries. By reclassifying about 18% of output from consumption to human and knowledge capital investments, our second calibration needs only 0.3 %/yr of exogenous productivity growth to explain global consumption growth observed during 1995–2014. Though our model omits environmental costs and thus ignores long-run sustainability issues, our adjustments suggest desirable though difficult changes that could improve World Bank ANS as a comparative sustainability indicator.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
8.00
自引率
4.30%
发文量
91
期刊介绍: The Journal of Environmental Economics and Management publishes theoretical and empirical papers devoted to specific natural resources and environmental issues. For consideration, papers should (1) contain a substantial element embodying the linkage between economic systems and environmental and natural resources systems or (2) be of substantial importance in understanding the management and/or social control of the economy in its relations with the natural environment. Although the general orientation of the journal is toward economics, interdisciplinary papers by researchers in other fields of interest to resource and environmental economists will be welcomed.
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