Estimated pulse wave velocity as a forefront indicator of developing metabolic syndrome in Korean adults.

Background/aims: The predictive value of the estimated pulse wave velocity (ePWV) for the development of metabolic syndrome has not yet been extensively explored. This study aimed to fill this gap by evaluating ePWV as a potential predictor of metabolic syndrome development in middle-aged Korean adults.

Methods: Using prospective data obtained from the Ansan-Ansung cohort database, participants without metabolic syndrome at baseline were studied. ePWV was calculated using specific equations based on age and blood pressure. The primary outcome was the incidence of metabolic syndrome during a median follow-up period of 187 months.

Results: Among the 6,186 participants, 2,726 (44.1%) developed metabolic syndrome during the follow-up period. ePWV methvalues were categorized into tertiles to assess their predictive value for the development of metabolic syndrome. An ePWV cut-off of 7.407 m/s was identified as a predictor of metabolic syndrome development, with a sensitivity of 0.743 and a specificity of 0.464. Participants exceeding this cut-off, especially those in the third tertile (8.77-14.63 m/s), had a notably higher risk of developing metabolic syndrome. Specifically, the third tertile exhibited a 52.8% cumulative incidence compared with 30.8% in the first tertile. After adjustments, those in the third tertile faced a 1.530-fold increased risk of metabolic syndrome (95% confidence interval, 1.330-1.761).

Conclusion: ePWV is a significant predictor of the development of metabolic syndrome. This finding underscores the potential of ePWV as a cardiometabolic risk assessment tool and can thus provide useful information for primary prevention strategies.