Risk factors for progression from prediabetes to diabetes among older people with HIV.

Objective: Risk factors for progression from prediabetes mellitus (pre-DM) to diabetes mellitus (DM) among people with HIV (PWH) receiving modern antiretroviral therapy (ART) require better characterization.

Design: AIDS Clinical Trials Group (ACTG) A5322 (HAILO) was an observational cohort study of PWH ≥40 years old. Participants initiated ART through ACTG randomized clinical trials.

Methods: We used Cox proportional hazards regression models to identify risk factors for development of DM among HAILO participants with pre-DM.

Results: Among 1035 HAILO participants, 74 (7%) had pre-DM at entry and another 679 (66%) developed pre-DM during follow-up. Of 753 PWH with pre-DM, 167 (22%) developed DM. In multivariable models, the risk of developing DM was greater with higher BMI, lower CD4 count (≤200 cells/mm 3 ), hypertriglyceridemia, or higher waist circumference at pre-DM diagnosis ( P  < 0.01).

Conclusion: Rates of pre-DM and progression to DM remain high among virally suppressed PWH receiving modern ART regimens. Traditional risks for DM, such as higher BMI or waist circumference, are associated with increased risk of incident DM among PWH with pre-DM. The association between lower CD4 + and progression to DM suggests a role for advanced immunodeficiency and inflammation. Further investigation of interventions aimed at preventing DM among PWH with pre-DM is needed. Optimizing prevention and treatment for DM may be an intervenable opportunity to improve long-term outcomes for PWH.