A quasi-dynamic location equilibrium model for urban policymaking as autonomous cars increase mobility

The growing utilization of autonomous cars may affect people's residential location choice behavior and change the population distribution in a city, contrary to compact city policy. This paper proposes a model to estimate the time-series impacts of autonomous cars on population distribution in a city. The model basically consists of the primary factors cohort method and a housing land location equilibrium model. The location equilibrium model considers the residential location choice behavior of individuals, while prior models have been based on the behavior of households. We applied the model to Niigata City, Japan and analyzed the impact of permission to utilize autonomous cars (an increase in car availability to non-drivers) in the whole area of the city and only in the suburbs. Results indicated that permission to utilize autonomous cars only in the suburbs may lead to urban sprawl.