Just energy heating transitions: lessons from characteristics of households using different heating sources

In the context of the energy transition policy that came into force in Spain in 2019, it is necessary for households progressively to substitute dirty energy heating sources with clean ones. This means replacing energy heating carriers that use carbon energy sources with others that use electricity, that is the cleaner energy source, specifically in Spain where electricity mainly comes from renewable sources. This replacement must be based on the use of modern and efficient electric heating appliances. This can involve a substantial economic effort for certain households, that are already vulnerable. This paper proposes a multinomial model to determine which variables explain households’ energy heating sources use and applies this model to microdata, from the Spanish Household Budget Survey, for 2016-2019. Results show that it is likely that energy-poor households use gasoil or coal and electricity for heating. It is also more probable that households living in rural areas and older buildings use these sources. Households renting their dwelling and living in warm regions are more likely to use electricity, whereas those living in cold regions, urban areas, with woman heads are more likely to use gas. Households owning the dwelling, with older heads and residing in larger houses are more likely to use gasoil or solid fuels. From these results, implications are derived to inform public policy regarding just energy transition.