Global predictive invasion modeling of Asian wood-wasp Eriotremex formosanus (Matsumura) (Hymenoptera: Siricidae): insights gained from Pinus L. occurrences, and the first record of this invasive species in South America

Biological invasions are significant threats to biodiversity and are often exacerbated by human activities. This study consolidates occurrence data of Eriotremex formosanus (Matsumura) (Hymenoptera: Siricidae), models its ecological niche, and analyzes spatial congruence with global Pinus L. occurrences to identify at-risk areas across continents. Through a combination of techniques utilizing distribution records and environmental predictor variables, the study predicts the E. formosanus ecological niche. The models show high accuracy with AUC values of 0.959 ± 0.023, TSS of 0.852 ± 0.048, and Jaccard coefficients of 0.865 ± 0.037. The findings reveal a widespread global suitability for E. formosanus, encompassing previously unreported regions in Papua New Guinea, South Korea, Europe, Africa, and Australasia, with notable suitability in the Americas and a well-established presence from Japan to India in Asia. South American regions from northern Guyana to western Venezuela and along the Brazilian Atlantic coast are particularly suitable. The identified suitable areas significantly overlap with Pinus occurrences, primarily in temperate zones, pinpointing potential regions at invasion risk. Additionally, we recorded for the first time the occurrence of E. formosanus in South America. Given the recent discovery of this species in Brazil, this overlap necessitates urgent attention to potential invasion regions and pathways. The study underscores the importance of focused sampling in potential distribution areas and highlights the utility of ecological niche modeling in predicting and managing the spread of invasive species.