评估美国农业部的农场资产负债表预测

IF 1.5 Q3 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Agricultural Finance Review Pub Date : 2024-06-24 DOI:10.1108/afr-10-2023-0138
Pedro Antonio Díaz Cachay, Todd Kuethe
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引用次数: 0

摘要

目的 美国农业部的农场资产负债表预测提供了有关美国农场部门金融资产和债务的重要而及时的信息。尽管这些预测在政策和决策制定中发挥着重要作用,但尚未对其进行严格评估。本研究探讨了美国农业部的农场收支预测在多大程度上是对后续官方估算的最佳预测。设计/方法/途径根据之前对美国农业部农场收入预测的研究,从 1986 年到 2021 年的存档资产和债务预测被用于基于回归的偏差和效率测试。这些发现有助于预测用户调整其预期,也有助于预测人员调整当前的预测方法。
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Evaluating USDA’s farm balance sheet forecasts

Purpose

The United States Department of Agriculture Farm Balance Sheet forecasts provide important, timely information on the financial assets and debt in the U.S. farm sector. Despite their prominent role in policy and decision making, the forecasts have not been rigorously evaluated. This research examines the degree to which the USDA’s Farm Balance Forecasts are optimal predictors of subsequent official estimates.

Design/methodology/approach

Following prior studies of USDA’s farm income forecasts, archived asset and debt forecasts from 1986 through 2021 are used in regression-based tests of bias and efficiency.

Findings

Forecasts from 1986–2021 are found to be unbiased but inefficient. The forecasts have a tendency to over-react to new information early in the revision process.

Originality/value

These findings can be helpful for forecast users in adjusting their expectations and for forecasters in adjusting the current forecasting methods.

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来源期刊
Agricultural Finance Review
Agricultural Finance Review AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY-
CiteScore
3.70
自引率
18.80%
发文量
24
期刊介绍: Agricultural Finance Review provides a rigorous forum for the publication of theory and empirical work related solely to issues in agricultural and agribusiness finance. Contributions come from academic and industry experts across the world and address a wide range of topics including: Agricultural finance, Agricultural policy related to agricultural finance and risk issues, Agricultural lending and credit issues, Farm credit, Businesses and financial risks affecting agriculture and agribusiness, Agricultural policies affecting farm or agribusiness risks and profitability, Risk management strategies including the use of futures and options, Rural credit in developing economies, Microfinance and microcredit applied to agriculture and rural development, Financial efficiency, Agriculture insurance and reinsurance. Agricultural Finance Review is committed to research addressing (1) factors affecting or influencing the financing of agriculture and agribusiness in both developed and developing nations; (2) the broadest aspect of risk assessment and risk management strategies affecting agriculture; and (3) government policies affecting farm profitability, liquidity, and access to credit.
期刊最新文献
Multi-step commodity forecasts using deep learning Regional analysis of agricultural bank liquidity Data-driven determination of plant growth stages for improved weather index insurance design Utilizing FSA conservation loan programs to support farm conservation activities Evaluation of alternative farm safety net program combination strategies
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