何时监测或控制:利用部分可观测马尔可夫决策过程(POMDP)框架对入侵物种进行知情管理

IF 6.3 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ECOLOGY Methods in Ecology and Evolution Pub Date : 2024-06-28 DOI:10.1111/2041-210X.14374
Thomas K. Waring, Vera L. J. Somers, Michael A. McCarthy, Christopher M. Baker
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引用次数: 0

摘要

入侵物种管理的资源分配需要有关入侵种群规模的信息,而获取这些信息可能既昂贵又耗时。如何权衡在监测和控制工作上的投资是一个具有挑战性的决策问题,而现有的数学工具往往难以解释,并且/或者仅限于特定的案例研究。我们提出了一个部分可观测马尔可夫决策过程(POMDP)框架,以帮助决策者理解有效的监测和控制决策。POMDPs 可以处理系统模型和状态的不确定性,但由于其状态空间是连续的、高维的,因此解决起来更具挑战性。我们并没有像之前提出的大多数方法那样限制系统的可能状态,而是通过开发密度投影方法来降低信念空间的维度,将其限制为参数化的概率分布系列。这样做的目的是使问题的数学表达与现实世界中与人类决策相关的数量保持一致。我们模型的结果是一系列行动,这些行动能最大限度地降低管理入侵物种的预期成本,其中的建议取决于对物种丰度的估计以及该估计的不确定性。我们通过一个热带火蚁(Solenopsis geminata)控制案例研究和两个复杂程度不同的一般案例研究,证明了我们提出的框架的有效性。此外,我们还研究了结果对控制成本和效果以及监测成本和误差选择的敏感性。本文提出的框架为环境管理者提供了强大的 POMDPs 机制。它可以计算出管理不断增长的入侵物种种群的最佳行动方案,其中包含不同的时间跨度和多种控制干预措施。我们避开了一般 POMDPs 在计算上的困难,提供了清晰、直观的决策建议概览,以及这些决策在新情况下如何变化。初步结果和基于情景的分析表明结果很有希望,该框架可扩展到疾病管理的相关领域。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

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When to monitor or control: Informed invasive species management using a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) framework

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来源期刊
CiteScore
11.60
自引率
3.00%
发文量
236
审稿时长
4-8 weeks
期刊介绍: A British Ecological Society journal, Methods in Ecology and Evolution (MEE) promotes the development of new methods in ecology and evolution, and facilitates their dissemination and uptake by the research community. MEE brings together papers from previously disparate sub-disciplines to provide a single forum for tracking methodological developments in all areas. MEE publishes methodological papers in any area of ecology and evolution, including: -Phylogenetic analysis -Statistical methods -Conservation & management -Theoretical methods -Practical methods, including lab and field -This list is not exhaustive, and we welcome enquiries about possible submissions. Methods are defined in the widest terms and may be analytical, practical or conceptual. A primary aim of the journal is to maximise the uptake of techniques by the community. We recognise that a major stumbling block in the uptake and application of new methods is the accessibility of methods. For example, users may need computer code, example applications or demonstrations of methods.
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