Siyi He, Zhiyi Zhang, Guohui Song, Zhenhai Wang, He Li, Maomao Cao, Fan Yang, Dianqin Sun, Xinxin Yan, Shaoli Zhang, Yi Teng, Qianru Li, Changfa Xia, Wanqing Chen
{"title":"基于个人风险特征的个性化胃癌筛查起始年龄：一项基于人群的前瞻性研究。","authors":"Siyi He, Zhiyi Zhang, Guohui Song, Zhenhai Wang, He Li, Maomao Cao, Fan Yang, Dianqin Sun, Xinxin Yan, Shaoli Zhang, Yi Teng, Qianru Li, Changfa Xia, Wanqing Chen","doi":"10.1093/jnci/djae162","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>The current recommended starting age for gastric cancer screening lacks unified guideline and individualized criteria. We aimed to determine the risk-stratified starting age for gastric cancer screening in China based on individuals' risk profiles and to develop an online calculator for clinical application.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>In this multicenter, population-based, prospective study, we allocated participants enrolled between 2015 and 2017 (N = 59 771, aged 40-69 years) to screened and unscreened groups and observed them for primary endpoints: gastric cancer occurrence as well as all-cause and gastric cancer-specific death. Median follow-up was 6.07 years. To determine the reference starting age, the effectiveness of gastric cancer screening was assessed by age group after propensity score matching. Further, we categorized the calculated individual risk scores (using well-established risk factors) by quantile. Subsequently, we used age-specific, 10-year cumulative risk curves to estimate the risk-stratified starting age-that is, when the individual's risk level matches the reference starting age risk threshold.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>During follow-up, 475 gastric cancer case patients, 182 gastric cancer-related deaths, and 1860 all-cause deaths occurred. All-cause and gastric cancer-specific mortality decreased among screened individuals 45 years of age and older and 50 to 59 years of age, respectively. Thus, the average population (referent) starting age was set as 50 years. The 10-year cumulative risk of gastric cancer in the average population aged 50 years was 1.147%. We stratified the starting age using 8 risk factors and categorized participants as low-risk, medium-risk, and high-risk individuals whose risk-stratified starting age was 58, 50, and 46 years, respectively.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Although high-risk individuals warrant starting gastric cancer screening 3 to 5 years earlier than for the average population (aged 50 years), low-risk individuals can tolerate delayed screening. Our online, personalized starting age calculator will help with risk-adapted gastric cancer screening (https://web.consultech.com.cn/gastric/#/).</p>","PeriodicalId":14809,"journal":{"name":"JNCI Journal of the National Cancer Institute","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":9.9000,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Personalized starting age of gastric cancer screening based on individuals' risk profiles: a population-based, prospective study.\",\"authors\":\"Siyi He, Zhiyi Zhang, Guohui Song, Zhenhai Wang, He Li, Maomao Cao, Fan Yang, Dianqin Sun, Xinxin Yan, Shaoli Zhang, Yi Teng, Qianru Li, Changfa Xia, Wanqing Chen\",\"doi\":\"10.1093/jnci/djae162\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Background: </strong>The current recommended starting age for gastric cancer screening lacks unified guideline and individualized criteria. We aimed to determine the risk-stratified starting age for gastric cancer screening in China based on individuals' risk profiles and to develop an online calculator for clinical application.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>In this multicenter, population-based, prospective study, we allocated participants enrolled between 2015 and 2017 (N = 59 771, aged 40-69 years) to screened and unscreened groups and observed them for primary endpoints: gastric cancer occurrence as well as all-cause and gastric cancer-specific death. Median follow-up was 6.07 years. To determine the reference starting age, the effectiveness of gastric cancer screening was assessed by age group after propensity score matching. Further, we categorized the calculated individual risk scores (using well-established risk factors) by quantile. Subsequently, we used age-specific, 10-year cumulative risk curves to estimate the risk-stratified starting age-that is, when the individual's risk level matches the reference starting age risk threshold.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>During follow-up, 475 gastric cancer case patients, 182 gastric cancer-related deaths, and 1860 all-cause deaths occurred. All-cause and gastric cancer-specific mortality decreased among screened individuals 45 years of age and older and 50 to 59 years of age, respectively. Thus, the average population (referent) starting age was set as 50 years. The 10-year cumulative risk of gastric cancer in the average population aged 50 years was 1.147%. We stratified the starting age using 8 risk factors and categorized participants as low-risk, medium-risk, and high-risk individuals whose risk-stratified starting age was 58, 50, and 46 years, respectively.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Although high-risk individuals warrant starting gastric cancer screening 3 to 5 years earlier than for the average population (aged 50 years), low-risk individuals can tolerate delayed screening. Our online, personalized starting age calculator will help with risk-adapted gastric cancer screening (https://web.consultech.com.cn/gastric/#/).</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":14809,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"JNCI Journal of the National Cancer Institute\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":9.9000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-11-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"JNCI Journal of the National Cancer Institute\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1093/jnci/djae162\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ONCOLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"JNCI Journal of the National Cancer Institute","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jnci/djae162","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ONCOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Personalized starting age of gastric cancer screening based on individuals' risk profiles: a population-based, prospective study.
Background: The current recommended starting age for gastric cancer screening lacks unified guideline and individualized criteria. We aimed to determine the risk-stratified starting age for gastric cancer screening in China based on individuals' risk profiles and to develop an online calculator for clinical application.
Methods: In this multicenter, population-based, prospective study, we allocated participants enrolled between 2015 and 2017 (N = 59 771, aged 40-69 years) to screened and unscreened groups and observed them for primary endpoints: gastric cancer occurrence as well as all-cause and gastric cancer-specific death. Median follow-up was 6.07 years. To determine the reference starting age, the effectiveness of gastric cancer screening was assessed by age group after propensity score matching. Further, we categorized the calculated individual risk scores (using well-established risk factors) by quantile. Subsequently, we used age-specific, 10-year cumulative risk curves to estimate the risk-stratified starting age-that is, when the individual's risk level matches the reference starting age risk threshold.
Results: During follow-up, 475 gastric cancer case patients, 182 gastric cancer-related deaths, and 1860 all-cause deaths occurred. All-cause and gastric cancer-specific mortality decreased among screened individuals 45 years of age and older and 50 to 59 years of age, respectively. Thus, the average population (referent) starting age was set as 50 years. The 10-year cumulative risk of gastric cancer in the average population aged 50 years was 1.147%. We stratified the starting age using 8 risk factors and categorized participants as low-risk, medium-risk, and high-risk individuals whose risk-stratified starting age was 58, 50, and 46 years, respectively.
Conclusion: Although high-risk individuals warrant starting gastric cancer screening 3 to 5 years earlier than for the average population (aged 50 years), low-risk individuals can tolerate delayed screening. Our online, personalized starting age calculator will help with risk-adapted gastric cancer screening (https://web.consultech.com.cn/gastric/#/).
期刊介绍：
The Journal of the National Cancer Institute is a reputable publication that undergoes a peer-review process. It is available in both print (ISSN: 0027-8874) and online (ISSN: 1460-2105) formats, with 12 issues released annually. The journal's primary aim is to disseminate innovative and important discoveries in the field of cancer research, with specific emphasis on clinical, epidemiologic, behavioral, and health outcomes studies. Authors are encouraged to submit reviews, minireviews, and commentaries. The journal ensures that submitted manuscripts undergo a rigorous and expedited review to publish scientifically and medically significant findings in a timely manner.
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