Estimation of self-funded human papillomavirus vaccine recipients from Japan's previously assumed “unvaccinated generation”

Precise vaccination data is essential to accurately estimate the effectiveness of the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine against HPV-related cancers. In Japan, the number of subsidized HPV vaccinations can be tracked through registries, but the number of self-funded vaccinations has not been tracked. The number of individuals who chose to receive the vaccine at their own expense, despite being ineligible for public subsidies due to their age, is unknown and has been nominally considered to be zero. Our aim is to produce a more accurate estimate of this number using recently released proprietary data. First, we estimated the total number of self-funded HPV vaccinations occurring from 2010 to 2012 using public data from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare and our previously reported data on the number of HPV vaccinations eligible for public subsidy. Second, using proprietary data from the vaccine manufacturer, we calculated the distribution of self-funded vaccination shots by age. Finally, we combined these data to estimate the number of self-funded HPV vaccinations by birth fiscal year (FY) relative to a yearly reference population. We found that 78,264 individuals born in FY1993 and 58,190 born in FY1992 self-funded their vaccinations, representing 13.6% and 10.0% of the reference population, respectively. Additionally, we found that 5%–10% of individuals born from FY1986 to FY1991 self-funded their vaccinations. Our study revealed for the first time that a certain number of individuals from the “HPV unvaccinated generation,” ineligible for subsidies due to age restrictions, chose to self-fund their vaccinations.