Recent progress in hukou reform and labor market integration in China: 1996–2022

To investigate the household registration system (hukou) reform in China, it is important to quantify the thresholds of obtaining hukou in urban areas at the city level. We build a new index to measure the likelihood of obtaining urban hukou for migrants in each destination city, termed the “settlement probability”, based on individual information of floating population from the population census and hukou policies of 332 cities from 1996 to 2022. We find that the average settlement probability has been steadily increasing since 1999, reaching 91% in 2022, and 15 provinces have achieved low thresholds. We further build a simple general spatial equilibrium model with the factor of settlement probability to investigate the impacts of hukou reform. The empirical analysis shows there is a mismatch between settlement probability and settlement intentions. Moreover, we find that higher settlement probability is significantly correlated with more migrants' inflow, lower migrants' wages and higher urban housing prices, especially in more developed cities. Therefore, hukou reform is crucial for enhancing the integration of China's labor market.