Concealed Handgun License Laws and Concealed Handgun License Adoption, 2002-2019.

Introduction: National-level data suggest that gun owners in the U.S. carry concealed weapons in public at growing rates. This research investigates whether these trends are associated with state adoption of more permissive concealed carry-licensing laws between 2002 and 2019.

Methods: Data were obtained from 31 U.S. states from 2002 to 2019. State-level rates of licenses issued, denied, and newly issued per 100,000 residents were calculated and compared across 3 state legal categories: (1) states that banned carrying-concealed weapons and adopted a shall-issue law, (2) states with a may-issue law that adopted a shall-issue law, and (3) states that made no changes to concealed carry-licensing laws. Difference-in-differences methods were used to compare the rate of licenses newly issued and denied in ban to shall-issue states relative to those in states with no concealed carry-licensing law change during the study timeframe. Data were analyzed in 2022-2023.

Results: States that transitioned from a ban on concealed weapons carrying to shall-issue laws were positively associated (2%-6%, SE=0.11-0.13) with additional new licenses relative to states that did not enact concealed carry-licensing law changes. Ban to shall-issue law changes were also associated with denial of substantially more licenses (75%-85%, SE=0.24-0.23). Furthermore, states that transitioned from may-issue to shall-issue laws awarded fewer licenses than those transitioning from a concealed weapons ban to shall-issue laws.

Conclusions: State-level concealed carry licensing may inform public health and safety policies as large restrictive U.S. states transition to more permissive concealed carry-licensing laws.