Climate Warming Effects on Income Polarization in China

Climate warming poses a serious threat to sustainable economic development in China. The impact of climate warming on income polarization is often overlooked. This study combines a neural network model and household electricity data to estimate income. Furthermore, a regression model is constructed to examine the nonlinear effect of temperature on income polarization. The study reveals that temperature is a significant factor of income polarization. The temperature range with the lowest income polarization is 21–27 °C, while other temperatures will significantly exacerbate income polarization. Heterogeneous effects of temperature on income polarization indicate that temperature has a greater impact on income polarization in economically underdeveloped areas. By the end of the century, climate warming could significantly exacerbate income polarization. The main reason may be that, against the backdrop of global warming, low-income groups have weaker adaptability compared to high-income groups, which exacerbates income polarization. The findings are significant for regulating income polarization under climate warming in China.